The negative news has finally come out; the $6.5 billion Bitcoin seized from Silk Road can be sold on the market. The U.S. stock market is closed today in mourning for former President Carter.
1. Technical Analysis:
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The chart highlights the key Fibonacci retracement levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%). The current price is just below the 38.2% retracement level (~98000) and close to the 23.6% support level (~95800).
If BTC fails to hold the 23.6% support level, it may further test lower key levels, such as ~93000 or lower.
The main resistance levels are concentrated around 50% (99891) and 61.8% (106198).
Upward Channel:
It can be seen that BTC is still within a larger upward channel, currently near the lower edge of the channel. Whether it can hold the lower support is key to determining the next direction.
Once it breaks below the channel support (92000~93000), it may lead to greater selling pressure in the short term.
RSI Indicator (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is currently between 40-50, close to the oversold area, but has not entered extreme low territory. There may be a slight rebound in the short term, but overall market sentiment remains weak.
MACD Indicator:
The MACD line and signal line are currently in a death cross state, indicating strong downward momentum. However, the histogram shows that the downward momentum is gradually diminishing, which may indicate stabilization in the short term.
2. Based on recent trends in the crypto market, the following points can be referenced:
Macroeconomic Influences:
The market is highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, the movement of the U.S. dollar index, and other external economic environments. If there are more favorable news (such as pausing interest rate hikes), it may drive BTC prices up.
Conversely, if global risk asset selling sentiment intensifies, BTC may face downward pressure.
Market Sentiment and Capital Flow:
Recent on-chain data indicates that the number of BTC holding addresses has increased, suggesting that confidence among medium to long-term holders remains. However, short-term capital flows may be more inclined towards more liquid assets, especially in unstable market conditions.
ETF News (Approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs) remains an important factor driving the market. If news of approved related ETFs emerges, it may trigger a significant rise.
Miner Behavior:
The selling pressure from miners is a recent factor to watch. If prices further dip below 95000, miner sell-offs may exacerbate price volatility.
3. Short-Term Trend Forecast:
If BTC can stabilize near the current support level (23.6% retracement level ~95800), a short-term rebound may occur, targeting between 98000-100000.
If it breaks below the support level, it may approach the lower edge of the channel (~92000), with further support around 90500.
4. Medium to Long-Term Trend Outlook:
If BTC can hold the upward channel and break through the key resistance (106000~108000), it is expected to quickly re-enter a higher upward cycle.
On the contrary, once the long-term support (channel lower edge 92000~93000) is lost, it may lead to a deeper correction.
