Bitcoin's latest market analysis on January 9, 570537800562025

1. Short-term rebound

In the short term, I believe the probability of Bitcoin (BTC) forming a double zigzag or triple zigzag is higher, marked as WXY or WXYXZ.

The 5-wave decline on the 1-hour level for Bitcoin (BTC) has completed, defined as the entire or part of Y-a in the WXY or WXYXZ correction wave.

Today, it will at least rebound to the 6-hour BBI and 12-hour BBI located at 96572, 96732, and a stronger push could reach the daily MA 5 around 94575, it is unlikely to effectively stabilize at 98000, and it is impossible to quickly stabilize again at 99580-100000, which is the upper edge of the center in this theory.

2. Final decline

After the rebound, it will fall again! How much will it ultimately decline?

(1) If it's in the capital absorption model phase, that is, the super cycle 3-3-2 wave, it will ultimately drop to 76921-82923-88924, with a high probability of dropping to 82923-88924, then quickly pull back to the weekly BBI near 90000, it cannot consecutively drop below the weekly BBI for three weeks, otherwise, the capital absorption model also known as the super cycle 3-3-2 wave can be excluded.

(2) If it is in a pure distribution phase, that is, the super cycle 3-2 wave, it will ultimately drop to the range of 61954-72904, located at the Fibonacci fan 0.3333 or 0.5.

(3) Regardless of the trend, after reaching the drop level, it will rise back to 120000-150000.

If you stretch the timeline of Bitcoin, it is just a drop in the ocean.

3. Cycle of significant decline

This major decline begins on December 17, 2024,

(1) If it is in the capital absorption model phase (super cycle 3-3-2 wave)

I personally predict that wave Y or wave Y-a will end around 34 days (January 20, 2025, short bear).

I personally predict that wave Z or wave Y-c will end around 55 days (February 10, 2025, short bear), generally not exceeding 89 days (March 16, 2025, mid bear), and the extreme will not exceed 144 days (May 10, 2025, mid bear).

Let's not be too pessimistic for now; I personally believe there are still many possibilities in the capital absorption model phase!

Regardless of what happens, when the time node arrives, we must make an attempt! Pay special attention to the short-term nodes on January 20, 2025, and February 10, 2025!

(2) If it is in the pure distribution phase (super cycle 3-2 wave), it will at least drop to 89 days (March 16, 2025, mid bear), normally it should drop to 144 days (May 10, 2025, mid bear), or even drop to 233 days (August 7, 2025, can be identified as super cycle 3-2 wave, long bear), and the extreme drop could reach 377 days (December 29, 2025, fully identified as super cycle 3-2 wave, long bear)