Is the market facing another critical turning point?
Recently, Bitcoin has repeatedly broken the $100,000 mark, only to pull back afterward. Many investors believe this is a short-term consolidation in a bull market, expecting a continuation of upward momentum. However, well-known analysts Jacob King and seasoned trader Peter Brandt have issued warnings, believing the current market heat may be reaching a 'devastating' inflection point. Jacob King even bluntly stated that Bitcoin's price may fall below $30,000 again by 2025. Such remarks undoubtedly doused cold water on the enthusiastic crypto market, sparking widespread discussion within the community. Some individuals have even begun to reduce their positions or take profits to guard against risks, fearing that a large-scale 'reshuffling' action may soon commence.
Bitcoin's trading volume shrinks as it falls from its peak.
Observers point out that this pullback may be related to unexpectedly strong U.S. employment data (JOLTS), with the economic situation still recovering. Market concerns about monetary tightening and interest rate policies have again intensified, leading to a daily liquidation amount of $300 million in the crypto market.
Regarding future developments, analysts have diverse viewpoints: some believe Bitcoin is still in the latter stages of a bull market, but must experience several waves of strong flushing before reaching the peak. However, there are also seasoned traders like Peter Brandt who believe that considering the generally 'high leverage' among Bitcoin traders, a change in market sentiment could lead overly optimistic investors to face a disastrous outcome. He even predicts Bitcoin may test around $50,000 again, representing a drop of approximately 50%.
Source: XPeter Brandt believes Bitcoin may test $50,000.
More pessimistic voices come from Jacob King, who points out that Bitcoin is repeating its 8-year resistance pattern. Each failed breakthrough of the trendline in the chart leads to a large-scale crash. He predicts that history will repeat itself this year, causing Bitcoin to fall below $30,000.
Source: Jacob King predicts that history will repeat itself this year, allowing Bitcoin to fall below $30,000.
Devastating blow? Or a necessary fluctuation before long-term growth?
Many investors may feel panic upon seeing the term 'major crash,' but there is also a relatively rational faction within the crypto circle offering different perspectives. Some experts analyze that Bitcoin facing a certain degree of correction is actually quite normal, just like the numerous significant rises and falls in 2021 and 2022, ultimately leading Bitcoin to set even higher historical peaks.
In addition, many market factors supporting Bitcoin in the medium to long term have not disappeared:
Policy aspect: The newly elected U.S. President Trump has publicly committed to creating a more friendly regulatory environment for the crypto industry, even calling for the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve;
Institutional aspect: Large institutions and professional investors have not shown signs of a large-scale exit from major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum;
Technical aspect: The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks has begun to decline, with the market anticipating that once decoupling is completed, Bitcoin will be able to embark on an independent trend and challenge new highs.
Other analyses suggest that the alarming rhetoric primarily targets speculators who heavily use leverage. If that segment of positions is forced to deleverage, it could indeed trigger severe price fluctuations in the short term, but for long-term holders who operate cautiously, it may just be a thrilling yet non-lethal market cleanup.
While the bears have risen, the long-term outlook remains optimistic.
Overall, Bitcoin's pullback after breaking the million-dollar mark has indeed caused panic in the market, with many voices claiming 'a complete crash is coming.' However, some have pointed out that such fluctuations at the end of a bull market are normal and may not necessarily burst the entire crypto bubble.
Just when the market is embroiled in a heated debate over whether it is in a bear market or a bull tail, investors must face the risk of increasing market volatility. Prominent figures like Peter Brandt and Jacob King boldly proclaim that 'Bitcoin will face a devastating blow' or 'will pull back to $30,000,' which may not necessarily come true, but is certainly worth the market's attention and precaution. A potential major reshuffling could also be an opportunity to clean up bubbles and refine true value. Investors should dynamically adjust their positions and plan their funds to navigate this critical moment of market competition with a steady approach.
'Bitcoin crash warning? Analyst: may drop to $30,000 to $50,000, is it a brief correction or a devastating blow?' This article was first published in 'Crypto City.'
