Hot topics discussed by the master:
Caught a cold and missed a day, thanks to all the fans for their concern. Last night, US stocks plunged, and the crypto market didn't escape either, directly leading to a sharp drop in entry prices.
Currently, there might be a slight rebound during the day, but later tonight it might need another hit. However, after last night's drop, the market is already in disarray, so it shouldn’t continue to fall today. After all, short-term indicators also need a breather to recover.
Back to the main point, last night’s plunge, the master saw many people in the market saying it was due to the 11 PM JOLTs job openings data and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data. These two data points are indeed significant; one shows job openings at a new high, indicating that employment opportunities are abundant, and the unemployment rate could be even lower.
Another PMI exceeding expectations, which directly suggests that the economy is on the rise. The data is too good, but the market misinterpreted it: Fed rate cuts? What are you thinking? There’s no reason for that, at most, two cuts, or even a single drastic cut.
So funds got panicked, major players withdrew, leaving retail investors to suffer. At 11 PM, a wave of volume hit the market hard. The master also backtracked, noting that the largest volume was at 11 PM, but if you look closely, the market started to decline around 5 PM.
To be honest, while this data is somewhat related to the unemployment rate and non-farm data, it's not officially declared. But the market doesn’t listen to explanations, and it continues to crash, making US stocks also tumble sharply.
Following up on what was mentioned in the article on Monday, here are a few data points for this week: tonight at 21:15 there is the ADP non-farm payroll, tomorrow Thursday although the US stock market is closed, there is still the Challenger job cuts data, and then Friday is the main event, the non-farm payroll data.
Based on the current trend, if last night’s drop was indeed caused by the job openings and PMI data, then the upcoming employment data might not be stable either, and market sentiment could flip in an instant.
As for the non-farm payroll, it’s too early to say anything now. The master has decided to wait and see if the market can recover in the next couple of days. After all, last night’s drop pushed the market back to levels seen after Christmas, returning to the pre-liberation state overnight. When this panic sentiment will recede depends on the market's gradual recovery.
Back to Bitcoin, last night’s drop directly crushed the confidence of many who were bullish. Those who made short-term profits ran away, and those who were losing cut their positions. This wave of selling was even harsher than the master expected. This panic sentiment might also be an opportunity for short-term recovery.
Looking at short-term support, there are still quite a few chips supporting around 96k, and the defense line around 95k is temporarily quite solid. But to stabilize, it likely needs to wait until after the non-farm data is released.
Master observes the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 97500
Second resistance level: 99000
Support level reference:
First support level: 96350
Second support level: 95200
Today's suggestion:
Before 97.5K stabilizes, individuals will continue to maintain a bearish view, only looking for opportunities during very short-term rebounds. After breaking through the first resistance and the downward trend line, a short-term rebound can be expected, but adjustments may face again around the 20-day moving average and the 99K area, so risks must be noted.
Although there has been a significant drop, the market has not yet shown an obvious low buying zone, and buying sentiment remains suppressed. If trading volume during the rebound phase is insufficient, a bearish approach should continue to be adopted.
Moreover, the first support is also the support area of the 20 and 60-day moving averages on the daily chart. Below, pay attention to the 96~96.3K area as an important support range. Currently, the bearish view is maintained, and for very short-term short positions during the rebound phase, profits can be taken near the 96~96.4K area.
1.8 Master’s strategic setup:
Long entry reference: 95200-96000 range with small losses and light positions. Target: 97000-97500. If it pulls back to the 92-93k range, a direct purchase can be made.
Short selling entry reference: 98500-99000 range with light positions. Target: 97500-96350
