This year's tone is primarily focused on selling, and whether there are localized market trends can be judged by two points: special policies and interest rate cut expectations.
It has been difficult for special policies to be implemented in the past few months, so just focus on interest rate cut expectations. If the expectation for a rate cut in March declines significantly, the price of Bitcoin will likely drop; conversely, if the expectations rise. If the probability is unclear and hovers around 40-60%, then the market will be volatile. In a volatile market, one must be prepared for fluctuations; if decent profits are made, they should be taken, and one cannot be overly ambitious.
After some data was released last night, the probability of a March rate cut has dropped to a level 4, and the probability of a May rate cut is around level 5. Additionally, Bitcoin has rebounded for 8 consecutive days, so a pullback is very normal, but Bitcoin is still only in a state of fluctuation. Unless the probability of a March rate cut falls below 20%, it is unlikely to approach 91,500 or even drop below it. Going forward, focus on the two sets of economic data on the 10th and 15th, as well as the speeches after the FOMC meeting on the 29th to determine the market's direction.
