Article source: BitPush
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has seen a strong rebound, with Bitcoin returning to over $100,000 for the first time since December 19, 2024, currently priced at $102,263, up nearly 4% in 24 hours, with the rebound driving other major coins like Ethereum and Solana higher.
Funding rates for perpetual futures are rising
Market optimism is strengthening. According to Coinglass data, the weighted funding rate of open contracts for Bitcoin perpetual futures on major exchanges has risen to 0.0113% within the recent 8-hour contract cycle.
QCP Capital analysts downplayed the likelihood of Trump having a significant catalytic effect on the crypto market ahead of the January 20 inauguration, noting that when Bitcoin first broke above $100,000 on December 5, the funding rate for perpetual futures had surged significantly: 'However, the current funding level still remains healthy, and we do not expect a squeeze-driven surge in the near term.'
Crypto trader Gordon Grant also mentioned derivatives indicators.
Gordon Grant pointed out that for the third consecutive year, there has been a large amount of short-term Bitcoin call option trading at the beginning of January, which has often indicated a significant rise in Bitcoin prices in the past. The options market is an important tool for measuring market sentiment and predicting future trends. Active trading of call options indicates that market participants expect prices to rise.
He specifically mentioned that the trading volume of call options expiring on January 7 with a strike price of $103,000 exceeded 1,000 contracts, strongly suggesting that the market expects a rise in Bitcoin prices in the short term. Grant also compared the current situation with that of early 2023 and January 2024, when a large volume of call options trading before the launch of BlackRock's iBIT on January 10 propelled BTC from $40,000 to $48,000.
Grant stated: 'The market trend seems somewhat similar, especially in the view of some traders that Trump's inauguration is a recent turning point.' He pointed out that the options term structure shows a premium on dates following the inauguration, which may reflect that traders are pricing for potential market-moving events.
Although the current market signals lean towards optimism, there is still a degree of uncertainty in the market. A key question is whether this rebound is driven by short-term speculative behavior or marks the beginning of a sustained rise in Bitcoin through 2025. This needs to be observed from a longer time perspective.
Grant pointed out that the overall situation in the options market, including volatility and the skewed term structure, indicates that investors are more inclined to believe that there will be a long-term upward trend this year, rather than just short-term fluctuations, which provides some reference for the future direction of the market.
Coinbase premium returns to breakeven point
After experiencing a severe sell-off from December 18, 2024, to January 2, 2025, Bitcoin's premium on the Coinbase exchange returned to neutral levels on January 4, explained CryptoQuant anonymous Bitcoin analyst IT Tech in an article. The rebound in premium to the breakeven point indicates that 'the sentiment among U.S. and institutional investors has improved.'
However, it should be noted that the Coinbase premium primarily reflects the sentiment of U.S. retail investors, rather than institutional sentiment.
On-chain analyst Darkfost stated that the trading volume of retail-sized transactions below $10,000 has fallen to its lowest level since September 2024. With the rate of change falling below -10%, Darkfost believes this indicates a significant decline in retail interest, but this also opens an ideal buying opportunity in the long run.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has experienced a bullish structural breakout (BOS) after closing above $97,000 last week.
Anonymous market trader Crypto Scient emphasized that $100,000 remains a key turning point for Bitcoin. Crypto Scient stated: 'Unless we break above $99,000 and turn it into support, I believe we will see lower prices in January. For me, the triggering condition is very simple: break and hold above $99,000, or else we will retest the $90,000-$88,000 area.'
