On the macro data front, we need to pay attention to the ADP employment change at 21:15 this Wednesday evening, as well as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes at 3:00 AM on Thursday, and finally, the non-farm payroll data at 21:30 on Friday evening.

Tonight's impact on the US stock market will be more significant than usual, as the US Congress will confirm Trump's election victory tonight. Therefore, at the latest by tomorrow, we will definitely receive the Congress's blessing for Trump's favorable entry into office. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market will also enter an accelerated emotional phase, especially since Trump explicitly stated in December that he hoped to push Bitcoin to 150,000. Even if this is discounted, reaching 120,000 before January 20 should not be a problem.

As for whether altcoins can reach new highs, insufficient liquidity is an excuse for the decline, but it is not the real reason for the drop. The true reason for the decline is the "expectation of falling," while the reason for the rise is also the "expectation of rising." The market cap of USDT in 2021 was only half of what it is now, yet it was still able to support a bull market for altcoins. Currently, this round is not surprising; as long as there is an "expectation" present, although altcoins may not rise 100 times, increasing 50%-100% over the 2021 peak is still feasible.

At this moment, we are experiencing a rebound for the first time after about two weeks of consolidation. Some people see this as an opportunity to escape, while others see the beginning of the altcoin season. Currently, aside from market data, it will largely depend on the FOMC meeting on January 28-29 and the various macro data released during the rest of January.

These data will shape the market's expectations for the first interest rate cuts in January/March/May. If the data improves (here, "good" refers to being beneficial for us), then the probability of a March rate cut increases, and the expected number of cuts throughout the year will also rise. (The probability of a January rate cut is still considered low, so the main focus is on March vs. May.) Additionally, there will be a dot plot in March — meaning that March will provide the expected number of rate cuts for the entire year. If the January data is favorable and a very dovish stance is adopted in January, then the expectation for a March rate cut will rise, and the bull market is likely to continue.