Bitcoin performed well over the weekend, not continuing to drop. The market chose a slow upward trend, and in a few days, it is slowly returning to 100,000. Many bloggers have been saying that the current movements are just rebounds, not reversals.
Their understanding of 'reversal' is a one-sided rise, standing firm at 100,000 and continuously pushing up without any decline, which is considered a reversal. I believe this understanding of reversal is narrow or even incorrect. Some people often predict that 'if Bitcoin can pull back to 84,000, it would be great for building positions'; such predictions can easily lead to missing opportunities for short-term traders and can mislead those holding short positions to see 84,000. As long as it rises above 100,000 again or even reaches new highs, the short sellers who chased the market at lower levels will be extremely anxious.
I believe that every time BTC pulls back and holds near 90,000, there is no need to speculate about dropping to 80,000-70,000. BTC has repeatedly pulled back to 90,000 without breaking it, then quickly surged back to 96,000/97,000, stabilizing at the central point of 95,000. Breaking 97,200-97,700 would indicate a reversal, as breaking here would quickly lead to 98,200-98,800. Once the pressure at 98,200 is digested, it will rush towards 100,000 and above.
Many fans have asked me how Bitcoin will perform this week. Next, I will analyze from the perspectives of USDT and USDC supply, Bitcoin ETF inflow, Bitcoin premium index, Bitcoin trading volume, and macro data.
(1) USDT and USDC supply
Since January 2nd, the supply of USDT and USDC in the crypto market has increased by 1.7 billion, with an increase of 240 million in the past 24 hours. However, the trend of improving liquidity is very obvious.
(2) Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows
Bitcoin ETF buying power has strongly rebounded, with net inflows of 108 million, 650 million, for the four indicative Bitcoin ETFs: FBTC, ARKB, BITB, and BTC in the last two trading days.
(3) Bitcoin premium index
Buying power in the U.S. has also recovered, with the discount on Bitcoin on Coinbase nearly disappearing. Due to the optimistic expectations surrounding Trump's upcoming inauguration, recent positive factors have dominated the crypto market, increasing the probability of BTC continuing to rise in the short term.
(4) Bitcoin trading volume
Since December 31, the trading volume during Bitcoin's rise has been relatively small, indicating that the buying power is not strong enough at the moment. Therefore, it is highly probable that it will continue to rise in the short term, but the likelihood of a direct and effective breakthrough of previous highs is low.
(5) Macroeconomic data
There are many macro data points this week, which may lead to volatility. I suggest treating all of them as opportunities to enter long positions during pullbacks, focusing solely on the entry and exit points. From Wednesday to Friday, be sure to switch positions quickly; if there is a significant drop early Thursday, a sharp rise is inevitable by Friday evening.
There are still two weeks until Trump takes office. Today, Congress certified Trump's victory, and on January 20, Trump will officially be inaugurated. This period is a time of positive expectations. Once the positive news lands on January 20, it will start to pull back, and it may be a good opportunity to sell at a high.
Altcoins will continue to focus on Trump-related concepts or derivatives of Trump-related coins as a short-term speculation direction. Trump-related coins will continue to soar, with TREMP, MAGA, and FIGHT showing particularly obvious trends. They have essentially controlled their increase from the 2nd of this month in a range of 50%-100%. Rapidly expanding the bottom range has momentum, and there is potential to operate within a tenfold space over the next two weeks. Speculation requires learning to leverage short-term momentum and inertia; be bold!
Appointment sector: RSR, ZRX, DYDX, HNS
Trump sector: AAVE, ONDO, LINK
Grayscale sector: LTC, BCH, ZEN
Payment sector: XRP, XLM, ADA, AGLD
Musk sector: DOGE, PNUT
