According to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January 2025 is 88.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%. This data clearly indicates that market expectations for a significant increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rates in the short term have been greatly reduced, especially against the backdrop of gradually easing inflation pressures, leading to a growing confidence in the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate levels.
From the perspective of the cryptocurrency market, a low interest rate environment is generally favorable for risk assets, especially for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin. As the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates gradually diminishes, market sentiment has eased, providing strong support for the price recovery of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. With increased liquidity and strengthened risk-averse sentiment, interest in the cryptocurrency market may continue to rise, especially as Bitcoin and other digital currencies show strong upward momentum.
By March 2025, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep current interest rates unchanged is 53.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 42.2%. As inflation data continues to improve, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are gradually heating up. A decrease in interest rates often means lower borrowing costs, thus promoting more capital inflow into the market and further driving up the prices of risk assets.
Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs showed significant fund inflows, with a net inflow amounting to $255.3 million, increasing holdings by 2,421.94 Bitcoins. Although there was a large single-day reduction of 3,516.57 BTC from BlackRock's IBIT on Thursday, market sentiment quickly recovered, and Friday's fund inflow increased again, with Fidelity increasing its holdings by 3,684.64 BTC. This performance shows that institutional players' confidence in Bitcoin has not wavered due to short-term fluctuations, but rather intensified their positions amid market fluctuations.
As Bitcoin's price rises to around $98,000 and maintains a wide range of fluctuations, the inflow of institutional funds proves Bitcoin's long-term value as a digital asset. Especially with the impetus from spot ETFs, the participation of institutional players is gradually increasing, and the market depth and liquidity are continuously enhancing. This is very favorable for Bitcoin's medium to long-term performance. For ordinary players, the inflow of institutional funds is a strong signal, indicating the market's maturity and potential.
According to CryptoQuant data, since November 2024, the inflow of BTC to exchanges has significantly decreased, especially with a reduction in miner outflows, indicating that the selling pressure in the Bitcoin market is gradually easing. On November 25, 2024, the inflow of BTC to exchanges peaked at 98,748 coins, but by December, the inflow began to decrease significantly, maintaining a daily inflow of Bitcoin between 11,000 and 79,000 coins. This change indicates that market sentiment is stabilizing, and selling pressure is diminishing.
In particular, the decrease in miner outflows directly reflects a significant decline in the selling demand from Bitcoin miners. Miner outflows are usually an important source of market selling pressure, and the reduction in outflows indicates that miners' operational pressures have eased. Considering the continuous rise in Bitcoin's hash rate, miners' income and profitability may improve, further enhancing market confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.
It is worth noting that since the beginning of 2025, El Salvador has increased its holdings by 5 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 6,009 coins, with a total value of approximately $595 million. As the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, El Salvador's Bitcoin strategy once again demonstrates its firm support for cryptocurrencies. El Salvador's accumulation actions not only recognize Bitcoin's long-term value but also reflect the country's forward-looking layout in the cryptocurrency field.
For other countries and institutions, El Salvador's actions may have a demonstration effect, prompting more countries or institutions to join the ranks of Bitcoin investors. This will further promote the globalization process of Bitcoin and enhance its status as a global reserve asset.
BTC: From a weekly perspective, Bitcoin formed a 'medium bullish line' last week, further approaching the $100,000 mark. On the daily level, Bitcoin has formed 'star lines' for two consecutive days, accompanied by low trading volume. The star lines indicate a temporary balance of bullish and bearish forces, with rebound momentum still present, but the trading volume has not effectively expanded, which is one of the main reasons for the lack of sustainability in the rebound.
Considering that trading volume has not effectively expanded and that star lines are usually one of the signals for potential market reversals, Bitcoin is likely to continue testing the $100,000 threshold in the short term. However, if it fails to break through with volume, the price may face a pullback risk. Therefore, players need to pay attention to the following two points:
Tonight's market sentiment and trading volume performance after the U.S. stock market opens. If trading volume remains low, pressure above $100,000 will intensify.
If the support at 95,000 is not broken, the market may continue to maintain a range-bound consolidation.
In summary, at this stage, Bitcoin is temporarily difficult to initiate a new round of upward trends, and it is more likely to maintain a state of high-level range-bound consolidation. Players are advised to remain cautious and not to blindly chase highs, waiting for further clarification of market direction.
ETH: Yesterday, Ethereum formed a 'spindle line' and is currently above the 30-day moving average. Short-term upward rebounds encountered resistance and showed signs of weakness, suggesting a certain degree of pullback may occur in the future, maintaining a fluctuating trend.
Altcoins: Last weekend, the altcoin market performed relatively steadily, with no significant rise in speculation. However, it is noteworthy that many altcoins have technically adjusted to relatively low levels, suggesting they may be brewing a rebound. Therefore, this week presents certain opportunities for altcoins, depending on whether funds can flow back. If the flow back is smooth, new market trends may emerge this month.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 76 (Extreme Greed)#本周微策略是否继续增持BTC？