Master Discusses Hot Topics:
A new week begins, and the weekend's market performance for Bitcoin truly confirms the 'Weekend Law'. There was little fluctuation, even to the point of questioning life. From the data, the weekend liquidity was pitifully low.
The turnover rate is also at bear market levels, with short-term players busy entering and exiting. Medium to long-term players are too lazy to move, fully embracing the holiday atmosphere.
However, upon closer inspection of the data, the master found that the turnover rate over the weekend was almost catching up to that period before last year's election. At that time, the situation improved significantly after the election, but now it's back to the old path. So the question arises, what does this indicate?
This indicates that real money players are not interested in the current price at all. They are more confident about the future market; otherwise, why would almost all the coins from the exchanges be withdrawn? This tells us that it is still a holiday market; the main players are playing dead, while small investors are jumping around aimlessly.
Next, let's discuss some details; there are a few things worth talking about. One is that today the U.S. Congress will officially certify Trump's election (we're not discussing parallel world settings), and another is that the 20th of this month is the official inauguration day for the president.
Looking at history, during this period, don't blindly short for medium to long term. In election years, the market tends to be mild at the beginning and end of the year. Even in a bear market, the first and last 70 days of the quarters are often a comfort zone for the entire year. Don't chase highs blindly; wait patiently for opportunities.
Additionally, keep an eye on the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data on the 10th of this week. Let's see if there will be any small stimulus; the master estimates it will be nothing significant.
Then there's the ADP employment change on Wednesday night at 21:15, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes at 3:00 AM on Thursday (this might bring some volatility), and finally the non-farm payroll data at 21:30 on Friday night.
So regarding the news mentioned by the master above, whether you are a short-term or medium to long-term player, the most stable operation is to go long at lower levels. When no direction exists, enter on pullbacks; the price points matter.
If you must trade long and short, you need to be quick from Wednesday to Friday, especially if it drops early Thursday; then on Friday night, you can basically wait for a sharp rise. In the short term, the range of 92k-100k for Bitcoin seems more like an adjustment, with limited downward space. Therefore, the master personally expects it to continue pushing upward after a volume contraction adjustment.
Master Views the Trend:
Resistance Level Reference:
First Resistance Level: 99400
Second Resistance Level: 100500
Support Level Reference:
First Support Level: 98500
Second Support Level: 97500
Today's Suggestions:
After gaining support below, Bitcoin rebounded and broke through the short-term downtrend line, currently in an upward trend. The current rise has formed an ascending channel, thus maintaining the view of further rebounds. It is also necessary to observe whether the already broken trend line and resistance levels can form support, which will serve as a basis for operations.
Currently, the probability of testing 100K again has increased, but be cautious of pullbacks due to profit-taking. It is recommended not to chase highs for now, but to wait for opportunities when the price pulls back.
If it breaks the first resistance level, it will be an important signal of breaking the previous high, indicating that the key resistance level has been surpassed. Once it breaks 100K, Bitcoin will likely experience a rapid rise in the short term due to bullish sentiment.
If the 99.4K test fails, a pullback may occur in the short term. In this case, you can consider the 20-day and 60-day moving averages and 97.5K as key support targets in phases, looking for ultra-short entry opportunities during the pullback.
The current psychological resistance level of 100k is right in front of us. It is recommended to observe whether the lows continue to rise within sufficient pullback zones, maintaining rebound expectations. If the lows are broken, the testing time for 100,000 may be delayed. If Bitcoin stabilizes above yesterday's high of 98.5K, the bullish expectation can continue throughout the day.
1.6 Master Band Pre-Embedded:
Long Entry Reference: Lightly enter long in the 98000-97800 range. If it pulls back to the 97500-97200 range, enter directly long. Targets: 98800-99400-99800
Short Selling Entry Reference: Not currently applicable
