👀 Dear ones, at the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin faced a selling wave from American investors, casting a shadow over the originally hot market. After the U.S. elections in November 2024, the Bitcoin index soared to 0.14, indicating strong selling pressure. However, the index then plummeted to **-0.22**, marking the lowest level in the past 12 months, which undoubtedly shows that American Bitcoin investors are massively selling their holdings.
🌕 Although Bitcoin's price is currently trading around $96,750 and has seen a slight increase of 2.06% in the past 24 hours, whether this upward momentum can be sustained remains unknown. If American investors continue to sell BTC, the price of the cryptocurrency is likely to further decline, and the likelihood of breaking below the $95,000 mark is increasing.
💻 Another key indicator supporting this view is the price-active address difference. This indicator assesses the relationship between user interaction and price changes to gauge market sentiment. When the value is positive, it indicates increased user participation, which is a positive signal for cryptocurrency; a negative value indicates a decrease in user participation, suggesting a price drop. Currently, the price difference for Bitcoin has decreased to 231%, showing a weakening market activity. If this trend continues, the likelihood of BTC trading price falling below $95,000 will significantly increase.
💻 From a technical analysis perspective, the future trend of Bitcoin is also not optimistic. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is an important technical indicator that predicts market direction by measuring the change in trend direction relative to price. When the EMA slope is above the price, the trend is downward; when the price is above the indicator, the trend is upward. Currently, Bitcoin's price is below the 20EMA (blue), indicating that the value of the cryptocurrency may continue to decline. If Bitcoin cannot break through the 20EMA and selling pressure continues to increase, the price may further drop to $85,851.
⭐ However, the market is always full of variables. If American investors suddenly increase their buying pressure on Bitcoin, the entire trend may reverse. In this case, Bitcoin's price is expected to stabilize again and possibly rise to $108,398. Therefore, although the current situation is severe, the future trend of Bitcoin still has uncertainties, and investors should closely monitor market dynamics and manage risks.
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