The first month of 2025 is destined to be a turbulent month: Trump officially takes office as the US President, the Federal Reserve holds its first interest rate meeting of the new year, and before that, US non-farm payroll data, CPI and other economic data are released one after another, and there is also the Chinese New Year holiday at the end of the month... All of this may cause the crypto market to soar or plummet, and we need to be prepared in advance.
In the past December, Bitcoin first broke through the $100,000 mark, reaching a high of $108,351, and then fell by tens of thousands of points three times in succession, causing the market to experience a roller coaster ride, and the market sentiment also shifted from FOMO to caution.
So, in January, will these major financial events ignite the market, pushing Bitcoin to break new highs at $120,000 again? A special financial calendar for January has been prepared for all coin friends, covering major events inside and outside the crypto circle, along with a focused interpretation of important events, analyzing the logic behind these upcoming major events to help you clear away the clouds and find your wealth code.
How have Bitcoin returns historically in January?
Before the article unfolds, as is customary, let's review: How have Bitcoin returns, as a barometer of the crypto market, performed historically in January? Here are the statistical data from third-party websites like tradingview:
From the chart above, it can be seen that historically in January, Bitcoin has generally risen more than it has fallen, with a rise-fall ratio of 4:6 over the past 10 years.
Specifically, however, the declines in down years are mostly small, for example, in 2015, 2016, and 2018, the declines were less than 1%, which can be considered flat;
In the second year after the halving, namely 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin's January returns were both positive, indicating that the halving effect is still very strong.
Reviewing major events that directly impact the rise and fall of the entire crypto market
Note: The times mentioned in the following text are all in Beijing time (UTC+8);
On January 9, Federal Reserve FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes
Specific time: 3:00
The Federal Reserve FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes are a detailed report released by the Federal Reserve after each monetary policy meeting, recording the discussions, decision-making processes, and assessments of economic conditions.
The meeting minutes are typically released about three weeks after the meeting. They are of significant reference value for investors, economists, and policy analysts, as they provide insights into the Federal Reserve decision-makers' views on economic conditions, future economic policy directions, and financial markets.
Because during the December monetary policy meeting, Powell made hawkish remarks that led to a significant market drop, the minutes from this meeting are particularly important. We need to find the reasons for the hawkish stance in the minutes and identify the potential for a rate cut at the end of this month. The market will pay close attention to these minutes, which may again trigger significant market fluctuations.
On January 10, US non-farm data for December will be released
Specific time: 21:30
Last month's non-farm data rebounded significantly more than market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% as expected, and the non-farm employment population increasing by 227,000, the largest increase since April. This data has led the market to increase bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, which ultimately occurred as expected in December; moreover, after the data was released, Bitcoin continued to rise, creating a new historical high.
From the current market expectations, this non-farm data is not expected to have any major surprises, with the unemployment rate still around 4.2% and non-farm employment expected to increase by about 200,000. If these data meet expectations, it may not prevent the Federal Reserve from pausing rate cuts at the end of this month. Unless the data significantly underperforms expectations, such as a rise in unemployment or a drop in non-farm employment, forcing Federal Reserve officials to reevaluate monetary policy.
After the data is released, if it meets expectations, the crypto market may rise initially and then fall, leading to short-term volatility, so risk control is necessary.
On January 15, US CPI for December will be released
Specific time: 21:30
As the last major economic data released before the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of this month, the release of this CPI data is of great significance. If the CPI data is unremarkable, it may not stop the Federal Reserve's plans to pause rate cuts; as long as the data does not show a significant rise, it would be considered bad news for the market. If the CPI rises significantly, it could be a bullish stimulus for the market, but the current likelihood of this happening is still low.
The previously released November CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. Although it rose for the second consecutive month and reached a four-month high, it was still within expectations, allowing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to confidently make hawkish comments in the post-meeting speech, causing the crypto market to crash.
Currently, the release of this CPI data may not bring much benefit to the market. If there is not much change in the data, a short-term spike in both directions is most likely.
On January 20, Trump was inaugurated as the President of the United States
Trump's inauguration as President of the United States is considered a positive development for the crypto market by most people, especially since the biggest KOL in the crypto circle, Musk, also holds an important position in the new government; we previously discussed in our article: Is Trump's shooting a self-directed play? Will it benefit the crypto circle? This could be the last major bull market for the crypto circle! that Trump's election as President would force the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts, which is an important logic behind the rise in the crypto market after Trump's election.
After Trump's inauguration, just over a week later is the Federal Reserve's first monetary policy meeting of 2025 (January 28-29). This makes Trump's inauguration and speech even more significant.
There is even a conspiracy theory in the market now: the continuous decline in the US stock market and crypto market is to wait for Trump to take office before rising, which could be part of his political achievements. Although this statement is basically unfounded, it also indicates the high expectations of the market after Trump's inauguration.
This inauguration ceremony is just a beginning; more importantly, we need to see what kind of economic and foreign policies Trump will implement after taking office, as this will have a huge impact on all markets worldwide, including the crypto market.
On January 30, Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Specific time: 3:00
Currently, there is a narrative in the market: as the Federal Reserve's interest rates reach a more 'neutral' level, high enough to curb inflation but low enough to protect the labor market, Federal Reserve officials have begun discussing slowing down the pace of rate cuts. They suggest that if actions are taken too quickly, inflation may remain above the 2% target, but if actions are too slow, it could lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.
Currently, the mainstream expectation in the market for this interest rate decision is to keep the rates unchanged. For example, CME's 'FedWatch' estimates that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at this meeting is as high as 89.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 10.7%.
Unless the previously released CPI and non-farm data and other economic data are significantly different from the norm, it is highly likely to remain unchanged. This would be considered a 'bad news turning into good news' for the crypto market, potentially prompting the market to rise.
January 28 - February 4, Chinese Spring Festival holiday
The Chinese Spring Festival is one of the largest traditional festivals in the world, significantly influencing East Asia, Southeast Asia, and other regions, which are all important players in the crypto market.
Historically, the Spring Festival holiday has affected the crypto market mainly by decreasing trading activity and increasing market volatility (mainly due to fewer buy and sell orders, large transactions may lead to significant price fluctuations), resulting in sharp fluctuations in the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Additionally, during the holiday period, stock markets in some Asian countries/regions may close early, so it's important to pay attention to the transmission of fluctuations from these traditional financial markets to the crypto space.
Other financial events
On January 7, Eurozone CPI data will be released; US trade balance for November;
On January 8, the small non-farm data - US ADP employment numbers for December will be released;
On January 12, China's CPI and PPI data will be released;
On January 16, US core retail sales data will be released;
On January 18, US net foreign purchases of securities for November; the Philippines SEC releases a consultation draft for crypto asset providers;
On January 24, Japan's national CPI year-on-year for December; Japan's central bank policy benchmark interest rate on January 24;
On January 30, Hong Kong's basic interest rate for January 30; European Central Bank main refinancing rate;
Tokens unlocked in January
KAS: On January 6, 182.23 million tokens were issued, worth $20 million;
ENA: 12 million tokens were unlocked before January 8, worth $12.16 million, for ecosystem development;
OP: On January 9, 31.34 million tokens were distributed, worth $57 million;
CIRX: On January 12, 2.8 billion tokens were unlocked, worth $102.9 million, accounting for 62.4% of the circulating supply
APT: On January 12, 11.31 million tokens were unlocked, worth $104.2 million, accounting for 2.03% of the circulating supply;
ARB: On January 16, 92.65 million tokens were unlocked, worth $70.9 million, accounting for 2.2% of the circulating supply;
In addition, some cryptocurrencies currently follow a linear unlocking model, meaning tokens are distributed daily. Representative cryptocurrencies mainly include:
SOL: $14 million worth of tokens sold daily;
WLD: $12.4 million worth of tokens released daily;
TIA: $5.1 million worth of tokens unlocked daily;
DOGE: $4.63 million worth of tokens released daily;
AVAX: $4.02 million worth of tokens unlocked daily;
DOT: $2.94 million worth of tokens distributed daily;
The specific unlocking dates and quantities may be adjusted according to actual conditions. Token unlocks typically lead to price fluctuations, and judgments should be made based on market conditions, risk expectations, and the status of the tokens to make informed investment decisions.
Conclusion
Currently, the crypto market has entered the most critical stage. Historically, the second year after each Bitcoin halving has been the start of a crazy bull market, not only with Bitcoin surging but also triggering a wave of altcoins and concepts.
January is not only the beginning of 2025 but may also be the start of the fourth round of the halving market entering a bull phase. The momentum from the halving has been accumulating for over 8 months, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut has already been in effect for 3 months. The market has enough momentum to enter a new phase of the halving bull market; any financial event could spark the market, and investors need to pay close attention.
Finally, the information in this article does not constitute investment advice. Please thoroughly review and grasp more information, make a comprehensive judgment on the market, and make your own decisions.