Will Bitmain and the overall market be able to break through in the next 24 hours? The analysis in the past few days shows that the fluctuations are basically within the predicted range. The trend does show signs of stopping the decline and rebounding, but from all aspects of data, there is no sign of rapid rise in the short term. The following is a detailed review. This video is only for personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. #BIO开盘
Let me talk about the conclusion first, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding Bitmain: It is predicted that it will fluctuate and consolidate between 94,000 and 99,000. In the current consolidation process, there is no large volume support for the rise and fall, especially the recent 24-hour pull-up, which is even smaller, so it is difficult to believe that it can break through quickly. So don't be blindly optimistic.
On the side of Bian Bian: It is expected to consolidate between 680-730. The results of the 63rd airdrop came out today, currently at 0.74 each, with a maximum of 1.47 each, which is quite standard and still good, after all, it was given for free. The MEGADROP is about to happen, and note that this time it will be for completing tasks or Bian Bian's regular period.
On the Thai side: It is expected to fluctuate around 3300-3600. Institutions have sold some, and tonight we will see if they want to buy back. Today has seen three 4-hour bullish candles, performing stronger than Bian Bian, but it also belongs to a short-term measurement without volume.
On the side of Guo Coin: Although it is also rising, it also lacks volume. Be careful not to over chase high prices. The situation of Sol is similar, but the biggest difference between Sol and Guo Coin is that Sol's utility determines its practicality, and it still has a relatively practical role in decentralized exchanges.
From the news perspective, investors are paying attention to regulatory changes in 2025 and the commitment of the King of Understanding to the crypto industry. The market will assess the performance of the King of Understanding in the first 100 days, including whether to establish a reserve for Bian Bian, clarify guidelines for honey or currency classification, and changes in the SAB121 bill. At the same time, adjustments in the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates will also affect risk assets. According to Coinmarketcap data, the altcoin season index has significantly decreased, dropping to 48 from last month's peak of 86. Binance announced that the number of registered users worldwide has exceeded 250 million, with an increase of 50 million users in the past seven months.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From Bian Bian's K-line perspective, although the 4-hour line broke the short-term downward channel yesterday, it did not have sustained volume support for further upward movement. The good news is that this current movement has allowed the daily line to break the downward channel, temporarily stabilizing the current position. However, it is still in a consolidation process, and it is expected to fluctuate around the current area in the short term.
2. Greed and Fear Index observation: Currently at 74, which belongs to greed, 4 more than yesterday. Yesterday's small rise stimulated some bullish sentiment, keeping market heat in a bull market.
3. The perpetual contract funding rate for Bian Bian is 0.0108%, while for Thai side it is 0.0093%, slightly lower than yesterday. Long and short contracts are evenly matched and relatively balanced.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options in the next three months: In the next three days, it will remain between 96000-97000, not much different from yesterday. Observing the option contract ratio, it belongs to a state without momentum to pull up. It is expected that this indicator will have little impact on the currency value within 24 hours.
5. The spot ETF Bian Bian saw an outflow of 2561 coins last night, with Thai side having an outflow of 2.31 coins. Institutions are currently neutral in sentiment and are observing.
6. According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), Bian Bian is currently strong on a weekly basis, maintaining neutrality over 24 hours. Thai Fang also maintains neutrality on a weekly basis and over 24 hours, the same as yesterday, relatively normal, with normal selling pressure. Currently, most coins have little selling pressure.
7. From the escape top index, it is currently at a lower-middle position, which indirectly indicates that the current position is not too high.
8. The Bian Bian hoarding index has fallen to 1.37. It is not suitable for hoarding, and anyone with a bit of position should not chase high prices.
Overall judgment: Pay attention to safety, do not blindly chase high prices. Currently, a position of 50-60% might be relatively comfortable, not losing when going up, and having bullets when going down. If completely empty, it might be better to split into dozens or hundreds of fixed investments than to act impulsively.$BTC $XRP $ETH