BTC has seen a small rise from last night to today, which has slightly boosted sentiment, but unfortunately this rise is not supported by volume, so its sustainability remains to be seen. Most other currencies have also risen, and the more altcoins there are, the more they rise. So, based on the long and short data, what is the expected short-term trend, and what are the positive and negative news? Let's review it. This video is only for personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. #比特币走势观察

Let me talk about the conclusion first, followed by news and technical analysis:

BTC: It is predicted that it will fluctuate and consolidate between 93,000 and 98,000. It is normal consolidation, with little volume in both ups and downs. Waiting for a new breakthrough during consolidation. Those who hoarded coins and accumulated funds at low levels in the past few days can sell some of them and wait for new opportunities to appear. According to various data, the selling pressure and short selling power are not strong at present.

Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate around 680-730, with a weaker performance over the past day. After all, it’s the end phase of the 63rd airdrop, some selling pressure is normal. Long-term holders are indifferent; when there are no airdrops, grid trading is also decent.

Regarding Ethereum: It is expected to fluctuate around 3300-3550, moving similarly to BTC over the past couple of days. It is estimated that it will need to wait for BTC to establish a new trend before taking off. One can also see if institutions continue to significantly increase their holdings tonight; if they do, it would be more reassuring to hold.

Regarding Dogecoin: Based on its volume, the increase is not significant, even less than Solana, and there hasn't been a major breakthrough. However, recovering losses is still a good thing, much better than many altcoins. It’s also fine to trade back and forth; for those who have already lost a lot, it's best to avoid selling everything at once. Doing some trading with a portion of the holdings to reduce costs is more reasonable.

In terms of news, Dennis Porter from the Satoshi Action Fund stated that a certain US state is likely to start purchasing BTC within the next four months, with his team pushing for related legislation. Anthony Scaramucci from SkyBridge Capital claimed that the US Senate will approve a large-scale BTC purchasing plan, which has Trump’s support. It is expected that the US government will retain about 200,000 BTC and may purchase an additional 400,000 to 500,000 BTC. Youwei Yang from BIT Mining predicts that BTC could be priced between 180,000 to 190,000 dollars by 2025, but could also see a pullback to around 80,000 dollars.

Next is the technical analysis:

1. From BTC's K-line, the 4-hour line is weakly moving out of a short-term downward channel. However, the current testing of upward momentum is very weak, not forming a substantial breakthrough. It can be understood as still consolidating around 94500. From the daily line, it is even more evident, with very low trading volume, and both long and short positions are still in a stalemate, waiting for a new breakthrough.

2. Greed and Fear Index observation: Currently at 70, indicating greed, which is 4 points higher than yesterday, related to the recent small rise, with a slight recovery in enthusiasm.

3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0131%, while Ethereum is 0.0114%, which has significantly increased compared to yesterday. The sentiment for long positions is much stronger than for short positions, providing good support for the current price level.

4. Observing the maximum pain point for options in the next three months: The next three days are between 95000-97000, which is higher than yesterday and aligns with the current price level, not likely to cause significant fluctuations to the current price.

5. For spot ETFs, there were no changes during last night's US stock market break. Further observation will occur tonight.

6. According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), BTC is currently strong on a weekly basis, maintaining neutrality for 24 hours. Itai Fang remains neutral on a weekly basis and also maintains neutrality for 24 hours, similar to yesterday, relatively normal with normal selling pressure.

7. From the escape top index, it is currently positioned in the lower middle, which indirectly suggests that the current position is not too high.

8. The BTC holding index has fallen to 1.31. Once it exceeds 1.3, the temporary yield from holding coins will be relatively low and not suitable for holding.

Overall judgment: What is currently certain is that the long-term trend will definitely be upward. The mainstream should not have major issues, but altcoins may struggle. Therefore, it is safer to focus on mainstream assets, holding some foundational positions, reducing holdings at relatively high points, and increasing positions at relatively low points to achieve cost reduction and partial profit-taking.