As the Christmas holidays in Europe and the United States come to an end, the temporary decline in liquidity at the end of the year has begun to end, liquidity has begun to gradually improve, and buying in the cryptocurrency market has begun to return. Although Bitcoin once fell to US$93,000 during the Christmas holidays, it is now close to overall stabilization, rising from 94k to 96k, a small increase.

It is expected that Bitcoin may fluctuate between 94K and 99K. This is a normal rebound. We still have to wait patiently for it to break through. If you bought Bitcoin at a low price before, when it reaches 99K, you can consider selling part of it and wait for new buying opportunities. There are still many people who are bullish in the market.

Long-term outlook

The market is currently experiencing a short-term volatile correction. Some of the profits made at the end of the year will be realized. In addition, the market needs time to digest the Federal Reserve's possible hawkish turn and policy expectations of reducing the number of interest rate cuts early next year. There is a lack of new driving force in the short term, and prices may fluctuate between $90,000 and $105,000.

At present, the sharp change in macro expectations has led to a turning point in the market. In fact, it was the same on December 18 last year. The dot plot and speech after the Fed meeting in the evening directly pushed the first interest rate cut expectation to June. So for the altcoin dealers and the big bitcoin dealers, the situation is very similar to the macro environment in March 24 (the first interest rate cut expectation was postponed to half a year later), which is why the altcoins fell 30% and the big bitcoin fell 10% after the Fed meeting on the 18th.

After waiting for the consolidation phase to end, funds to re-enter the market, and negative news to be gradually digested, the market in the first half of the year will usher in a new round of increases in the first quarter!

As for the second half of 2025, if the US economy does not collapse, the market will most likely peak in the fourth quarter. The current macro environment is different, and the top price should not be as high as 200,000 or even 300,000 as the market has been saying. It is expected that the price of Bitcoin may break through the $120,000 mark at this stage, and even reach $150,000 to $200,000 in an optimistic scenario.

Throughout the historical cycle, the Bitcoin bull market usually enters an adjustment period about 15 to 18 months after the halving, which also means that the market is likely to enter an adjustment phase after hitting a new high in the middle or second half of the year. The bull market will continue in the first half of the year, but after the middle of the year and the third quarter, we need to be alert to the risk of peaking and callback, and grasp the opportunity to exit!

Let me briefly talk about the situation of Shanzhai recently.

In the absence of hot spots in the market some time ago, funds effectively flowed into the AI ​​sector, and AI, IO, AKT, etc. also began to rebound, and funds gradually flowed to traditional AI projects.

And yesterday, Binance launched contract transactions such as ai16z, zerebro, and griffain.

This actually means that the AI ​​sector has entered a crazy phase, and there may be a need for a pullback in the short term. Remember to withdraw the principal first, and continue to run the remaining profits, and keep some bullets to prepare for possible pullbacks.

In short, the market has now recovered, so there will be a short-term outflow of funds from these tracks, but as a strong target, we must pay attention to the rhythm when changing positions.

In addition, BIO will open at 6 o'clock tonight. As a representative currency in the field of biotechnology, it has attracted much attention. It is worth noting whether its opening performance can lead a wave of enthusiasm. Judging from the over-the-counter prices of Bitget and Gate.io, the current price of BIO is about 0.94 to 1 US dollar. If you are interested, you can intervene with a light position. After all, it is easier to pull the price of new coins in the currency circle.

If you want to make money in this bull market, you must manage your positions according to your own funds!

If you have a lot of money, you can choose big currencies such as BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB, which can basically capture the growth of the entire market. Although the growth of these currencies may not be particularly large, due to their large market capitalization, you can make a lot of money.

If you have less money, then invest in MEME coins on the blockchain. However, this requires time to study, luck also plays a certain role, and patience is required. You can make a small investment to gain a big return, but you must also be prepared for risks. Timing and luck are very important.

If you have moderate funds, you can combine the two, use part of it to buy value coins, and use the other part to try MEME coins and some leading copycats. But you must study MEME coins carefully, otherwise it is easy to lose everything.

What coins with high value potential can be invested in at this stage?

First of all, Trump will take office on the 20th of this month, so we can prioritize the currencies of American projects in these two weeks.

The currencies in the relevant service sectors are RSR, ZRX, DYDX, and HNS;

Trump’s section covers AAVE, ONDO, and LINK;

Grayscale sectors include LTC, BCH, and ZEN;

The payment sector includes XRP, XLM, ADA, and AGLD;

Musk’s sectors are DOGE, PNUT, and PEPE.

During the Bitcoin market fluctuations, people will suffer a lot, because it is difficult to directly usher in a big bull market in a short period of time. At this time, do not be easily washed out. If you are good at using leverage, you can add more chips in the deterministic rebound market. The rest is to wait with peace of mind. The market has just started, and patiently holding the currency is the right way. Don't blindly operate to change positions. Cutting back and forth will only make the chips less and less!