Did you know that today the market may determine the direction of the start of 2025?
According to Greekslive data, 20,000 BTC options and 206,000 ETH options will expire today, with a nominal value of $1.93 billion and $710 million respectively, totaling $2.6 billion. This event is not only the first weekly option delivery in 2025, but also an important observation point after the market returns.

Key data for BTC and ETH options expiration:

  • BTC Options:

    • Put Call Ratio: 0.69, bulls clearly have the upper hand.

    • Max Pain: $97,000

    • Notional value: $1.93 billion.

  • ETH options:

    • Put Call Ratio: 0.81, with bears slightly in the lead.

    • Maximum pain point: $3,400.

    • Nominal value: $710 million.

The maximum pain point refers to the price point at which the market suffers the greatest loss at expiration, and it is also an important position contested by various parties in the market. From the data, the price of BTC and ETH is likely to adjust around the maximum pain point, but there is still uncertainty about whether the market will fluctuate sharply.

Market background: Adjustment and differentiation coexist

Greekslive analyst Adam pointed out that users in Europe and the US are gradually returning from holiday, and the overall trading heat of the market has significantly rebounded. However, the theme of the market this week remains 'adjustment':

  • Market differentiation is significant, and hotspots are difficult to sustain.
    Recently, there has been a lack of clear leading sectors or hot assets, with funds mainly focused on short-term reallocation.

  • US stock market correction affects sentiment.
    The obvious correction in the US stock market has also created a chain reaction of sentiment in the crypto market, especially with the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, market expectationsdo not lower interest rates, making it difficult to gain more favorable policies in the short term.

Nevertheless, market expectations for 2025 remain optimistic. Especially in late this month, Trump is about to officially take office as the new president, which may become a potential catalyst for the market.

The potential impact of options expiration on the market

  1. The price is likely to adjust around the maximum pain point.
    At the expiration of options, market prices often converge towards the maximum pain point. The maximum pain points for BTC and ETH are$97,000and$3,400, these two positions may become important support or resistance points in the short term.

  2. Increased volatility
    The expiration of options is usually accompanied by market volatility, especially given the enormous nominal values, traders need to be alert to sharp price changes in the short term.

  3. Intense struggle between bulls and bears
    From the Put Call Ratio, BTC bulls dominate, while ETH bears are slightly stronger, indicating a divergence in investor sentiment across different assets, which may exacerbate short-term market uncertainty.

Smart investment: How to seize opportunities in volatility?

Before and after the expiration of options, the market is often at its most volatile moment, and it is a key time for 'smart money' to lay out. To respond quickly in such situations, you need precise data analysis tools, and Mlion.ai is just such a 'secret weapon':

  • Options analysis and on-chain dynamic monitoring: Quickly grasp market capital flows and timely capture potential opportunities.

  • Market sentiment analysis: Assess bullish and bearish sentiment, understand the battle for the maximum pain point, and help formulate more scientific investment strategies.

  • AI market prediction: Relying on on-chain and off-chain data, helping you predict the short-term direction of the market and find the best timing for operations.

If you don’t want to miss every opportunity in market fluctuations, like smart money, use AI-driven investment research tools to enhance investment decision-making efficiency!

Conclusion: A turning point may be approaching

$2.6 billion in options expiration will bring considerable volatility to the crypto market. In a context of lacking market hotspots and cautious sentiment, the short-term adjustment will be a phase of both opportunity and risk. Will BTC and ETH adjust around the maximum pain point? Or will they welcome a new direction due to the reallocation of funds? Let’s wait and see!

Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!