【btc】2025.1.3

①Why did it fall again? It is a normal adjustment for the time being. It is a rebound market itself, so don't expect the whole market to be strong. The upper space is relatively limited, and the selling pressure from above is being digested while moving. In addition, this adjustment level may reach the 4-hour level. But despite this, the downward adjustment is also limited. The recent strong support is around 95900. Then, around 95200. One thing to note here is that once the price effectively falls below 95200, the rebound market may end, and it will continue to return to the trend of oscillating decline.

②If this rebound market goes smoothly, where can we see it? If the price can stop falling and stabilize at [95200-95900] in the next two days and start to rise, the target will be at least 100,000. The more extreme position is 103000. At present, I can only define this period of market as a rebound market, so it will not be overestimated. I still tend to believe that after the rebound is completed, the market will continue to fall until the gap at the 80,000 level is filled.

③ There are still 17 days before Trump takes office. Will there be a big rise before he takes office to fulfill the positive expectations? Probably not. Trump's inauguration has been fulfilled as a positive. Therefore, before and after he takes office, there will probably not be much energy to push the market to continue to rise, that is, there will be certain fluctuations before and after he takes office. If you want this market to have the momentum to continue to rise, you must have a new narrative, that is, the focus is on whether Trump has expressed good words about encryption, or within what time, he will fulfill his promise at the Bitcoin Conference, etc. In addition, I think that there will be more adequate adjustments in the ten days before taking office. #币安全球用户突破2.5亿 #比特币走势观察 #2025有哪些关键叙事？