Recently, there has been a significant change in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. According to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the market anticipates an 88.8% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January 2025. Behind this expectation are signals of a continuing recovery in the U.S. economy. Although some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve still faces inflationary pressures, given the slight decline in core PCE inflation and the stabilization of the labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its current monetary policy while observing future economic data trends.
In the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy in 2025, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 49.7% by March 2025, while the probability of a rate cut gradually increases. The probability of a 25 basis point cut is 45.3%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 4.9%. This indicates a strong market expectation for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative policy in the coming months, but considering the Federal Reserve's hawkish tendencies and the gradual improvement in economic data, the extent of the rate cuts may be relatively small.
On the other hand, Goldman Sachs also lowered its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year, reducing it from the original 1 percentage point to 0.75 percentage points. Goldman Sachs' report noted that the annualized increase in core PCE inflation from September to November 2023 was 2.5%, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 2.3%, but still in line with the trend of declining inflation. Especially as the labor market gradually tightens and wage growth slows, the Federal Reserve has more room to implement a more accommodative monetary policy.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs also pointed out that the U.S. tariff increases on Chinese goods, along with increased tariffs on European cars and Mexican electric vehicles, could push inflation up by 0.3% to 0.4% next year. However, such impacts are usually short-term, unless they trigger significant second-round effects through wages or inflation expectations. Overall, the gradual easing of inflation and the slowdown in wage growth suggest that the Federal Reserve may have more room for interest rate cuts than the market expects.
In addition to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the IRS has also released new tax policies regarding cryptocurrency. According to the latest news, the IRS has decided to postpone the enforcement date for cryptocurrency tax reporting rules to December 31, 2025. This means that users of CeFi exchanges can bypass tax regulations in 2025. This move is clearly a lenient policy towards the cryptocurrency industry, bringing temporary relief to the sector and giving players and exchanges more time to adapt to the new tax rules.
This policy adjustment is undoubtedly a positive signal, especially after the cryptocurrency market has experienced a period of turbulence; more policy support could inject new vitality into the market. For cryptocurrency players, the IRS's policy delay means they can plan their tax affairs more comfortably, and for the overall healthy development of the industry, this is also a positive sign. The attitude of the ZF is clearly inclined towards providing a more lenient policy environment for the cryptocurrency industry, laying a more solid foundation for the industry's future development.
At the same time, Messari released its six major predictions for 2025, the most striking of which is that ETH's performance will outperform SOL. As Ethereum (ETH) continues to dominate in decentralized finance (DeFi) and smart contracts, market demand for ETH will further increase, and it is expected that ETH's performance will surpass Solana (SOL) in 2025.
In addition, Messari also pointed out that Hyperliquid's excellent performance may have ended, Peaq is likely to surpass all L2s, and Pudgy Penguins will surpass CryptoPunks to become the hottest PFP series, all of which indicate that the cryptocurrency market will see more innovation and competition in 2025. The rise of AI Agent frameworks and the introduction of new technologies are expected to peak in the first quarter of 2025.
This series of forecasts indicates that the cryptocurrency industry will continue to maintain innovation and competitive vitality in 2025, with ETH, as the leading blockchain platform, likely to continue dominating the market. At the same time, other projects in the industry will also experience rapid growth, and the overall market outlook remains promising.
BTC: Yesterday, Bitcoin closed with a small bullish candle, indicating a short-term recovery in bullish strength. At the same time, it found support at the 60-day moving average, showing a slight rebound trend. In terms of trading volume, the daily trading volume has not significantly increased, indicating that market demand is relatively weak, which will limit the height of the rebound.
In summary, Bitcoin is likely to continue this oversold rebound trend in the short term, but it is important to note that the strength of the rebound depends on the accompanying trading volume. If the subsequent trading volume does not effectively increase, the rebound may stop around 100,000. The current rebound of Bitcoin is more like a technical correction rather than the start of a new major upward wave. Before there is a significant improvement in market funds and sentiment, the probability of maintaining a volatile consolidation pattern is relatively high.
ETH: Yesterday, Ethereum closed with a 'spinning top' and remains at the 60-day moving average, with a possibility of further upward rebound in the short term.
Altcoins: Recently, after a rebound in Bitcoin, the altcoin market has gradually recovered, and funds have started to flow back. Although the intensity of demand still needs to be observed in the short term, many altcoins have already adjusted to a reasonable range. If funds continue to flow in, a new upward trend may be expected in the future.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greed)#比特币走势观察