January 1, 2025.
Good morning, everyone.
A new year, a new beginning.
Although Bitcoin will return 150% annually in 2023 and 120% annually in 2024, crypto assets generally have positive returns.
But most people did not make money.
I think everyone is too fond of looking for swords on the boat. At the end of 2023, the boat fell sharply at the end of 2019, resulting in missing out.
At the beginning of 2024, the boat fell on 312 in 2020, and continued to miss out.
Now, a large number of people are looking for the bull market in the first half of 2021, and think that there will be a crazy copycat season in 2025.
I judge that most people will be educated by the market.
There will be no copycat season in the first half of 2025, only a copycat festival. Looking for swords on the boat is equivalent to chasing ups and downs to a certain extent.
Doing the same thing again and again, but hoping to get different results. Every time it rises, you chase the rise, and every time it falls, you sell at a loss. Can you not lose money?
Of course, I am still optimistic about the overall market in 2025.
Bitcoin will rise to more than $140,000. The violent alt season will only be late, not absent.
But I infer that the alt season will not come when everyone is ready and leveraged, but after the leverage is cleared.
It comes unknowingly when everyone is desperate.
The alt season in 2021 has become a "collective delusion".
If the "alt season" turns into a "alt season festival", then everyone here is responsible because everyone has leveraged.
It leads to market operation and starts a long deleveraging process.
The market will only rise when everyone is not ready, not when everyone is ready and leveraged.
Now everyone is leveraging to bet on the alt season, and the consequences will be serious.
At the same time, I hope that in the process of deleveraging this time, you will not be affected, nor will you lose confidence in the bull market cycle.
I said that even if the trend in 2025 is different from that in 2021.
You must be firm, the bull market cycle is still there. It just took a turn in the middle and took a few months to clean up the leverage.
Only after the leverage is cleared, the market will rise healthily.