1. Bitcoin: $BTC
So far this year, there have been 3 important periods:
24.1-24.4, 24.4-24.8, 24.8-24.12
First Phase (24.1-24.4):
This period is the upward cycle of Bitcoin, with strong upward momentum and extremely FOMO sentiment, from 23.818's 24,000
It reached 73,000 in March at 24.3, a full 3 times the increase. I can't help but exclaim: The strong are terrifying!
Second Phase (24.4-24.8):
This phase began with extremely annoying downward and sharp decline trends, basically all previous profits were given back in this phase.
Even many brothers went bankrupt because of this, which is very common. So how did the market trend?
On April 14, Bitcoin started to crash from 7.2, dropping 10,000 points in one night, reaching a low of 60,000.
Many brothers woke up to find the sky had fallen, and from here the upward trend officially collapsed!
In the following days, it continued to fluctuate around the large range of 50,000-70,000, while Ethereum and other altcoins were even more sluggish, with market sentiment bleak!
Third Phase (24.8-24.12.31):
The key point of this phase was on the 5th of August, where Bitcoin fell more than 15 points, from 65000 to 48000.
Ethereum declined more than 25 points, from 3000 to 2000.
The decline is not very large compared to previous bull markets, but it is already at the level of a small black swan!
And it was on this day, after the bloodbath of long positions, that the market officially began to build a bottom.
It rose from 48000 to the highest position of 108000.
However, after the rise, it has now begun a weekly level decline.
How will the market trend in the future? How will the market trend in 25 years? What positions should be laid out? This is very important!
Based on Bitcoin's trend pattern, we derive a simple algorithm to roughly calculate the next position of Bitcoin:
Bitcoin's first wave of rise: 23.8.18-24.3
240000-73000, rise of 2 times
Bitcoin's first wave of decline: 24.4-24.8
73000-48000, decline of 0.5 times
The ratio of the rise to the fall is: 1/4
Bitcoin's second wave of rise: 24.8-24.12
48000-108000, rise of 1.25 times
Then the second wave of decline: starting from 108000
The decline amount is: 108000 * 31% = 33573
The final predicted price is: 108000 - 33573 = 74727
Therefore, if Bitcoin undergoes a second wave of pullback, our predicted ultimate point is in the range of 74231-75578.
And if the third wave of rise starts from the bottom at 74500:
Rise ratio: 1.25/2 = 62.5%
Rise price: 74727.00 * 0.625 + 74727.00 = 121431.37500
So the third wave of rise can also be predicted according to this pattern to be above 120,000!
2. Ethereum Trend
I'll update later, I'm tired of writing!
