A plain and uneventful weekend has passed, and the market seems to have returned to calmness; the market has quieted down.
This aligns with the emotional state of a volatile market, transitioning from greed to fear, and now losing direction, lacking patience, and simply exiting to observe, not wanting to suffer.
There is one most intuitive difference between speculators and non-speculators:
Speculators get excited after a rise, rushing to buy for fear of missing out, and panic after a fall, looking for reasons for the decline, then seeing various negative news and cutting losses to exit.
Rather than speculators predicting the future market direction before it rises, they search for clues to judge whether the market has bottomed after it falls, entering when it has stopped falling, and waiting if it hasn't.
Not seizing opportunities during volatility, and then being torn about whether to enter when the market suddenly explodes, questioning whether it will continue to rise or fall, is already meaningless.
Because they couldn't judge the market before it started, and after it started, they were just driven by emotions to make decisions, the final result is naturally not good.
Not every bull market can make money; otherwise, where do the poor and speculators in this circle come from?
Without the ability to judge the previous market, missing out on Bitcoin rising from 15,487 dollars to 100,000, going through it all in a daze, then the future will similarly be a haze.
This is causation; with the cause to judge the previous market trends, one can judge the future trends, not just because the market is rising, one can be clear about the future.
Take SOL as an example; before it rose, if you hadn't understood the fundamentals of the SOL project in advance or analyzed the market trends at 10-20 dollars to determine it was starting an upward trend, how can you judge its future?
This round of SOL rose from a low of 8 dollars to 260 dollars, and everyone is saying how great it is, claiming it is better than Ethereum, but did you know it would rise beforehand, or did you only think it was great after seeing it rise?
If you think it is great just because it has risen, then not having grasped it beforehand indicates a lack of ability to seize opportunities; how can you seize the future?
Many people believe that since SOL has risen so much, it will continue to perform well in the future, thinking that the bull market will be led by SOL.
So every time there is a downturn, many people are buying SOL, believing it still has a lot of room to grow.
This is the result of not understanding, leading to blind following.
Just because it has risen, does that mean it will continue to rise? What logic is that? If we follow this logic, Bitcoin wouldn’t have dropped from 69,000 to 15,487 in the last bull market; it would just keep rising.
Speculators in the financial market are just a group of people stepping into pits: when it falls, everyone comforts each other, creates panic among themselves, and then cuts losses.
After it has risen, a group of people borrow courage from each other, encourage each other, and then chase the rise.
In the financial market, having many people doesn't mean more power; the bigger the risk taken, the faster the losses accumulate.
These two images, I believe, make it clear what they represent. The fan principle: breaking the first upward trend line is a signal.
This is why even though a new high was broken later, the increase was very small.
Two weeks ago, it broke the second upward trend line again.
If breaking the first trend line is a warning signal, what does breaking the second one mean?
Combined with the second image: volume-price divergence, MACD line-bar divergence.
This is not a divergence on the daily or 4-hour chart; this is a divergence on the weekly chart.
What will SOL perform like in 2025? In fact, various signs are very clear, and it is evident through the analysis method of '潜龙战法'.
If you want to make money through investment, it certainly shouldn't be by following the market; otherwise, you will fall into endless passivity.
I wonder if everyone remembers the years 2018-2019? Housing prices soared, and your friends and relatives, who previously were not optimistic about houses, those who advised you not to buy property, all started purchasing houses. Various positives emerged to attract people to buy, but ultimately those who followed the trend, not understanding real estate, ended up discussing real estate policies as if they were experts, and became trapped in the current situation. Everything has its rules; to seize opportunities and avoid risks, the only method is to 'understand how to recognize the rules'.
