When many people first step into the world of digital currency, they share a common vision: to achieve financial freedom through this emerging wealth domain, even dreaming of multiplying their assets by 10 or 100 times. This passion and desire for success drive newcomers to bravely take their first step into the cryptocurrency world, transforming them from bystanders to participants in this market full of opportunities and challenges.
Reality is always more complex than imagined. A week after entering the market, many newcomers find themselves in a completely new universe where all the rules differ from traditional investment markets. In the cryptocurrency world, a day's price fluctuations can equate to a year's fluctuations in the stock market. In such an environment, even casual investments can yield considerable returns, making it feel as easy as picking up money. This rapid success experience quickly inflates the confidence of newcomers, leading them to mistakenly believe they are the next 'stock god.'
As time goes by, a month after entering the market, reality begins to gradually reveal its cruel side. The uncertainty of the market and the influence of personal emotions make what initially seemed like simple profits become elusive. At this point, newcomers' dreams are no longer about how many times they can earn, but simply hoping to break even and preserve their capital.
Three months have passed, and after experiencing the ups and downs of the market and self-doubt, newcomers' mindsets have changed again. They begin to accept the reality of losses and even think that as long as there is a slight rebound, they can reluctantly accept even small losses. This stage is a difficult journey for many, as they begin to realize that the cryptocurrency world is not a land of gold, but a complex ecosystem that requires careful handling.
Six months is enough time for a person to go from high enthusiasm to disillusionment. When account funds shrink and dreams shatter, many newcomers choose to give up, silently uninstalling the trading platform's app, vowing never to step into this circle again. Some of them may return at some point in the future, but more will completely leave this place that once made them dream.
In this process, it is not difficult to find that the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency world is closely linked to human psychological cycles. As Howard Marks pointed out in his work (Cycles), the psychological and emotional fluctuations of investors are key factors in market cyclical changes. In the cycles of optimism, mania, anxiety, fear, despair, and recovery, each stage tests the rationality and emotional control of investors.
Although stocks and cryptocurrencies share some similarities, they are two different markets. Drawing on experiences from the stock market to participate in cryptocurrency investment is not always a wise choice. Therefore, for newcomers just entering this field, it is very important to understand the differences and similarities between these two markets.
Whether in the cryptocurrency world or the stock market, maintaining a calm mind and rational judgment is the key to success. Do not be misled by short-term benefits, and do not give up because of temporary failures. Remember, every rise and fall is the beginning of a new opportunity.#2025有哪些关键叙事？ #2025加密趋势预测