12.27 Market Analysis

Good morning!

As the United States is recovering from the Christmas holiday, many are concerned that the financial markets may experience a significant drop upon reopening. As a result, funds in the cryptocurrency space have sold off BTC, leading to a price decline.

However, it is noteworthy that:

From the ETF data, the market net inflow reached $160 million (Note: The latest data from BlackRock's IBIT and FBTC has not yet been released).

Trend Analysis:

This pullback is a normal retracement within a bull market and does not signify the end of the bull market.

Future Outlook:

With less than a month until Trump's inauguration, new waves and trends are about to unfold. If we fail to view the current trend from a macro perspective, we may easily fall into anxiety or make erroneous judgments.

Policy and Market Expectations:

By 2025, the market has only priced in a 0.35% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Trump has previously made it clear that he opposes high interest rates; therefore, after he takes office, the new government is likely to seize every opportunity to significantly lower interest rates. This move can effectively reduce the fiscal deficit and avoid triggering a fiscal cliff.

Investment Opportunities:

When there is a divergence between market expectations and future trends, it often presents an excellent entry opportunity. Thus, we should focus more on the trend rather than short-term candlestick fluctuations, which will help us maintain our positions firmly.

Summary:

Stay calm, watch for trends, and seize opportunities. $BNB