As usual, only focus on the trading strategy until the end.
What’s unfortunate about yesterday’s market is not the short position being stopped out, but that the long position was closed too early. My long positions were basically closed at 97200. I tried a short position at 95200 and added to it at 96400, but after the market easily broke through 97000, I stopped out all my shorts when it pulled back to 96800. There are a few reasons: First, it was a feeling—really just a feeling—that BTC would move upward tonight. This is also why I opened a short but didn't completely close my low long positions; instead, I gradually reduced my positions. This was a forced action to perceive and mitigate risk, which could also be reinforced by the last two reasons. Second, this upward rhythm is too familiar. Remember just last Friday, when the market surged to the highest point around 98300 and then dropped without turning back? At that time, I had a bad feeling, thinking that the stop loss for the long positions likely wouldn't hold. The same goes for last night's market, which surged from 94000 to 98500 without looking back. The rhythm was identical. When the market surged above 96000, I was already alert, but still added a short at 96400 as planned. However, the market continued to surge without looking back, so I decisively stopped out all my shorts. Third, the Nasdaq futures were strengthening continuously before the market opened and opened higher as expected, but after just a slight pullback, it continued to make new highs beyond the resistance level. At that point, I basically confirmed that the Nasdaq likely wouldn't pull back after reaching a high tonight, at least it would be oscillating at a high level, even making continuous new highs. Therefore, this kind of upward rhythm for BTC is likely to continue, and the significance of the resistance above becomes less relevant. Moreover, once today's upward movement is confirmed, it will likely continue to oscillate at new highs tomorrow. In fact, when I gave the short position suggestion yesterday, I added a note that if the Nasdaq and BTC are strong, the short positions should be closed in time. Previously, I didn’t have such an 'if'; it’s not that I had a premonition, but I felt that this market had a certain probability of occurring, and not a small one, which is why I specifically reminded everyone.
There are a few points worth considering: 1. Be flexible when facing the market; levels are fixed. When a situation similar to last night and last Friday occurs, open the three-minute chart. If the market moves in a one-sided manner without looking back, exceeding 2000 points, you can basically judge that it will trend in one direction. Whether to chase depends on your own situation, but if there are opposing positions, you should stop loss promptly and avoid holding on to false hopes. Conversely, if you have positions in the trending direction, you can continue to hold for a longer-term view. 2. Learn and get used to entering positions in batches and taking profits in batches. 3. Follow the trend.
Last night, after I closed my short position and took profit on my long position, I didn't dare to chase long positions any further. When the market broke through the 99000 resistance and reached the new resistance point of 99450, it started to pull back, returning to around 97200. I re-entered to go long. This kind of strong rally from the bottom likely indicates that there will be new highs, and pulling back to go long is generally not a mistake. The area around 97200 is a resistance and support swap, and having support is highly probable. The reason I didn't go long at 98400 is that while there is support there, the upward space is too small, which increases the risk. Last night, I closed out the chased long positions before sleeping, as short-term trades should ideally not be held overnight. This morning, I continued to buy on dips, and I took profit in the evening. Currently, the market has pulled back below 98000; let's see if there are new buying opportunities. If not, then forget it.
Today's market is oscillating slightly upward, breaking yesterday's new high of 99400 is definitely probable, and it might touch around 99800. Therefore, the short-term trading strategy remains to buy on dips. Buy around 97300 and watch 99100-99700, with a stop loss at 96000. Shorting is counter-trend and should be approached with caution; you can short at 99800 with a stop loss at 100300 and a target of 98100. The biggest highlight of this short position is the small stop loss, with a reasonable risk-reward ratio. If the market reaches that point, you can play with a light position, but remember to set a stop loss.
