#比特币市场波动观察

When Bitcoin reached the 'Heaven and Earth Needle' on December 5, I expressed that the recent trend would mainly fluctuate between 104000 and 90000. (But I believe it will retrace to 80000)

First, after breaking through 74000, it needs to consolidate and adjust before having a better and healthier upward movement. I do not believe that 108000 is the peak of this round; it may be the temporary peak of the current consolidation range. The support bottom at the weekly level can be seen as the bottom of the consolidation range, but it does not rule out a false breakdown to the 80000 position later on. Personally, I think this horizontal consolidation might take a relatively long time, similar to the previous range (Figure 2).

The Federal Reserve's attitude towards Bitcoin is merely a reason or excuse for the market's decline, after all, there always has to be a reason for the release of chips. Regardless of rising or falling, the market always has two different voices, which is part of the charm of the market.

If the market subsequently rises strongly but cannot break through the previous high, I will be bearish. If the current bottom at 90000 fails, we will look at whether the support at 80000 is strong.

This month, pay close attention to the position at 96660; if the closing is above it, it will be a bullish candle, otherwise, it will be a bearish candle.