In the past week, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, dropping about 15% from its historical high of $108,300 to around $92,000. Currently, as market sentiment gradually stabilizes, Bitcoin's price has recovered to around $96,000, entering a consolidation phase.
The recent decline has severely impacted altcoins, with many token prices even dropping to levels seen before October, erasing the "Trump effect" gains following Trump's election as President of the United States. Nevertheless, with the Christmas holiday approaching, many believe that the "Christmas crash" will further exacerbate market declines.
However, as 2025 approaches, a series of favorable factors such as Trump's inauguration and Bitcoin's strategic reserve plan are brewing, and the cryptocurrency industry is still expected to welcome a new "dawn moment."
This article summarizes the views of industry insiders, the state of institutional buying, and some on-chain activities to provide readers with a more comprehensive perspective on the market.
Overview of industry perspectives: most are bullish, few are bearish.
From the perspective of mainstream industry figures, most believe that the current pullback in BTC is only temporary, primarily due to the rapid breakthrough of the new high around $108,000. Meanwhile, altcoin holders are eager to sell, leading to market turbulence. As 2024 comes to a close and 2025 approaches, BTC is expected to welcome new highs.
CZ: Waiting for new headlines, Bitcoin continues to set new highs.
Binance co-founder CZ recently stated, while waiting for new headlines, Bitcoin continues to set new highs. Previously, CZ tweeted four years ago that BTC "crashed" from $101,000 to $85,000 while waiting for news headlines.
Cathie Wood: BTC will become scarcer than gold due to institutional demand.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that due to institutional demand, Bitcoin "is becoming scarcer than gold," and she previously predicted that by 2030, the price of BTC would exceed $1 million.
Bitwise CIO: BTC has three unstoppable sources of demand: ETFs, MicroStrategy, etc.
On December 19, Bitwise Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out three "unstoppable" sources of demand for Bitcoin: ETFs, Microstrategy, and governments potentially becoming Bitcoin buyers. He added: "It ultimately comes down to supply and demand. Too much demand and not enough supply, so I believe the price will be higher in 2025."
Trader Peter Brandt: BTC may continue to rise, with a near-term price target of $125,000.
After recently dropping below the $91,000 mark, BTC experienced a strong rebound this weekend, currently slightly retreating to around $96,000. During this process, veteran trader Peter Brandt reaffirmed his bullish outlook on BTC and stated that it may continue to rise. Furthermore, other on-chain indicators also suggest positive momentum for BTC in the future. In recent analysis, Brandt indicated that BTC could reach $108,358 in the coming days.
Peter Brandt's candlestick analysis.
However, he also warned through technical charts that BTC prices could pull back to $76,614 during an uptrend, adding that "this is not a prediction," pointing out the risks in the market. He stated that these analyses only reflect "possibilities, not probabilities or certainties." Additionally, his recently set BTC price target is $125,000.
Lark Davis: The current pullback is not the "end of the bull market," and the market still has ample fuel.
Crypto KOL and industry analyst Lark Davis analyzed historical data and believes that the current crypto market pullback is not the "end of the bull market." He stated: "In December 2020, after a 77% increase from October to November, BTC dropped 12%. Subsequently, it rose from $17,000 to $41,000 in the next 23 days (an increase of 136%). A similar situation is happening now; Bitcoin has dropped 13% after a significant increase in the fourth quarter. This does not mean this is the bottom; we may see another 10-15% correction. But Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market still have ample fuel."
Analysts: The recent Bitcoin pullback is highly correlated with the sell-off from Coinbase since October 26.
The recent drop in Bitcoin's price marks a sharp shift in market sentiment, which has quickly changed from extreme bullishness to uncertainty and caution. With altcoins taking a heavy hit, Bitcoin's pullback has raised concerns about the sustainability of the recent rally.
Top analyst Maartunn recently emphasized that this adjustment coincides with the most severe sell-off activity from Coinbase since October 26 (when BTC was trading at $66,000). The increased selling pressure clearly indicates the market's shift from bullish to one filled with fear and hesitation. The combination of reduced buying activity and increased selling pressure suggests the market is struggling to maintain upward momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently testing the $92,000 mark for support.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by mid-2025 and will maintain a moderate pullback trend.
Bitfinex analysts stated in a recent market report that due to strong institutional demand, Bitcoin's downturn in 2025 will be short-lived, predicting the best-case scenario is that Bitcoin's price will double by June 2025, with a minimum price estimate of "reaching $145,000 by mid-2025, and possibly rising to $200,000 under favorable conditions."
Analysts stated: "We believe any adjustments in 2025 will remain moderate due to institutional fund inflows." They noted that while volatility is expected for Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2025, the "broader trend" indicates that its price will continue to rise, thanks to ongoing inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and increasing global and institutional adoption.
CryptoQuant CEO: This is not a traditional alt season, but rather an independent market for individual tokens.
On December 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that Bitcoin's market share dropped by 6% (with XRP contributing 3%), but has begun to recover. Currently, only a few altcoins are attracting new liquidity, and the scale of fund rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins is limited.
He believes this is not a traditional alt season, but rather an independent market for individual outperforming tokens.
Trader Eugene: Altcoin investors are eager to sell spot assets, and the market may enter a longer period of consolidation.
Notable trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio expressed his views on the altcoin market, stating: "Altcoins (Alts) quickly fell back to these levels within 48 hours after forming wick lows, indicating that investors are extremely anxious about holding spot assets and eager to sell. The market may enter a longer period of adjustment, or quickly decline in a short time."
Analysts: Seeing significant pullbacks in a cryptocurrency bull market is "very typical."
Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new all-time high of over $108,000, and this round of declines has impacted altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin more severely. Last Thursday, a group of U.S. ETFs that directly invest in Bitcoin ended a 15-day streak of inflows, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.
FRNT Financial's data and analysis director Strahinja Savic stated that seeing such a significant pullback in a cryptocurrency bull market is "very typical," while QCP Capital reported that the fundamental reason for the sell-off is the market's "overly optimistic" positions.
Strong buying: BTC ETF continues to see inflows, with both nations and enterprises following suit.
From the market's fundamental buying perspective, we are still in the 'batting zone' of institutional trading, with funds from U.S. BTC ETFs, El Salvador, U.S. listed companies, and Japanese listed companies continuously purchasing BTC. The holding costs are not significantly different from BTC's spot price. Institutions are relatively optimistic about BTC's future performance.
Bitcoin Cap Table: ETFs, governments, and MSTR currently hold 31% of all Bitcoin, doubling from last year.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju released an update on the Bitcoin holding pie chart, stating that ETFs, government, and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoin, up from 14% last year.
BTC holding pie chart information.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a trading volume of $26 billion in week 50, with inflows of $17.5 billion for Q4 so far.
According to Trader T's monitoring, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $463 million in week 50, with a trading volume of $26 billion; additionally:
As of the fourth quarter, Bitcoin ETF inflows have reached $17.5 billion (the best quarter);
BlackRock IBIT inflows totaled $1.452 billion;
Other ETF outflows totaled $989 million.
El Salvador is increasing BTC purchases, with a medium-term goal of adding 20,000 BTC.
On December 21, Bitcoin Magazine revealed that Max Keiser, a senior Bitcoin advisor to President Bukele of El Salvador, stated: "President Bukele has increased daily Bitcoin purchases, with a medium-term goal of acquiring an additional 20,000 BTC." On December 22, the El Salvador wallet address increased its holdings by about 11 BTC (worth $1.06 million) for its strategic Bitcoin reserves.
Earlier, El Salvador reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to obtain a $1.4 billion credit line, but there were requirements to "reduce Bitcoin risks"; an IMF spokesperson stated that Bitcoin's use would be voluntary when asked about its legal tender status in El Salvador.
In the latest news, Stacy Herbert, director of the Bitcoin office in El Salvador, clarified that even after reaching an agreement, the country will continue to "accelerate" Bitcoin purchases as part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained that Bitcoin will remain the country's legal tender, and the government will continue to sponsor several cryptocurrency-focused educational programs. The Bitcoin office reported that the "1 BTC per day" purchase plan will continue.
In addition, the country made additional purchases, increasing its holdings by 30 BTC in the past 7 days and 53 BTC in the past 30 days.
Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF holds 272 BTC.
As of December 19, Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) holds 272 BTC, with an AUM of approximately $44.34 million.
Australia's BTC ETF continues to increase holdings.
Statistics: At least 10 companies are either implementing or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy.
Statistics show that at least 10 companies are either implementing or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, including:
AI company Genius Group: Currently holds 294 BTC;
Pika Solutions provider Worksport: The company's board approved an initial purchase of $5 million worth of BTC and XRP;
Amazon: Shareholders proposed that the company's board evaluate the potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to its financial strategy;
MicroStrategy: Currently holds 439,000 BTC;
MARA Holdings: Currently holds 44,394 BTC;
Tesla: Currently holds 9,720 BTC;
Coinbase: Currently holds 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves;
Hut 8 Mining Corp: Currently holds 10,096 BTC;
Block Inc.: Currently holds 8,027 BTC;
OneMedNet: Currently holds 34 BTC.
Among them, Bitcoin mining company MARA previously disclosed that it raised $1.925 billion through convertible notes in November and December and purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529, worth approximately $1.53 billion, and repurchased about $263 million of its existing convertible notes maturing in 2026. It is expected to use the remaining proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. Hut 8 surpassed Tesla on December 19, becoming the fourth publicly listed company to hold over 10,000 BTC.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 619.7 BTC.
On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced it had increased its holdings by 619.7 BTC, spending a total of 9.5 billion yen (approximately $60.68 million), with an average purchase price of about $97,800; its total BTC holdings increased to 1,761.98 BTC.
Increase holding documentation.
Glassnode: The severity of Bitcoin's pullbacks in the bull market trend has decreased, with most pullbacks around 25%.
Glassnode previously stated, "Interestingly, as the market grows, the severity of Bitcoin's pullbacks in the bull market trend has decreased. The deepest pullback this cycle was -32% (August 5, 2024), while most pullbacks were only about a 25% drop from previous highs, reflecting the demand for spot ETFs and growing institutional interest."
Glassnode leans towards a decreasing degree of pullback in on-chain activity: the number of wallet addresses is increasing, dormant addresses are awakening, and long-term holders are exiting.
On-chain activity shows a polarized phenomenon: on one hand, after extending the time scale, the number of holding addresses for mainstream cryptocurrencies has increased to varying degrees, with at least a 25% jump; on the other hand, ancient BTC addresses that have been dormant for over 10 years are awakening, and many long-term BTC holders have been gradually exiting.
In the past two years, the number of non-empty wallets for BTC and ETH has increased by 27% and 47%, respectively.
Santiment stated that the number of cryptocurrency holders has significantly increased over the past two years. Below are the numbers of non-empty wallets for the top four cryptocurrencies ranked by market capitalization:
BTC: 54.7 million (+27%);
ETH: 134.9 million (+47%);
USDT: 6.57 million (+66%);
XRP: 5.75 million (+28%).
Analysts: As of December 20, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges this month.
On December 20, crypto analyst AIi stated that as of now, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in December, and this trend does not seem to be slowing down.
Exchanges continue to see BTC outflows.
Since September, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 1 million BTC.
In mid-December, long-term Bitcoin holders sold a significant amount of Bitcoin, reducing their total holdings from about 14.2 million BTC in mid-September to approximately 13.2 million BTC. Bitcoin's current trading price is 13% lower than its historical high of around $108,000, which is the highest level since Trump won the U.S. election in early November.
According to Glassnode data, on December 19, long-term Bitcoin holders sold nearly 70,000 BTC, marking the fourth-largest single-day sell-off this year.
Recently, multiple addresses holding over $20 million have been activated after years of dormancy.
Bitcoin dropped below $96,000 on December 22, down about 11% since surpassing $108,000 on December 17, 2024.
Meanwhile, at block height 875,560 on the Bitcoin network, a wallet that had been dormant since July 25, 2015, was activated and transferred 44.99 BTC, marking its first activity since creation. The same user transferred a total of 59.99 BTC, moving funds from three old addresses (P2PKH) to two pay-to-witness public key hash (P2WPKH) wallets. Of these, 44.99 BTC were from 2015, when BTC traded at $290. Then, after 43 blocks, several wallets from 2017 began to activate, transferring small amounts of Bitcoin (0.00000547 BTC) at block 875,603.
This pattern of sending Bitcoin fragments cleverly disguises larger transfers. Once the satoshis are settled, a newly minted P2WPKH wallet will receive 99.999 BTC, valued at approximately $9.7 million at current prices. On Saturday, a wallet that had been dormant for 12 years was activated and transferred 104.99 BTC, which was worth $11 at the time, totaling $1,200. Now, these BTC are worth over $10 million. This transfer also migrated from an old P2PKH address to a new P2WPKH address.
Exchanges continue to see BTC outflows: Coinbase's losses are accelerating.
Coinglass data shows that the current Coinbase Pro Bitcoin wallet balance is 733,076.34 BTC, ranking first among CEXs; with an inflow of 16.69 BTC in the past 24 hours, an outflow of 14,661.50 BTC in the past 7 days, and an outflow of 70,185.16 BTC in the past 30 days.
Binance's Bitcoin wallet balance is 571,802.93 BTC, with an inflow of 1,458.46 BTC in the past 24 hours, 4,199.11 BTC in the past 7 days, and an outflow of 10,412.79 BTC in the past 30 days.
Summary: Historically, during any major market panic, looking back is often the best time to buy!!