Let's first talk about the market! Currently, everyone is most concerned about what stage the market is at today, whether the altcoin season will come, and when it will come? In fact, at this point in the market, if we had to classify it, it should be gradually entering the mid-term. Don't be fooled by Bitcoin's significant rise; it has only completed the first phase goal of breaking through the valuation ceiling of the crypto market, creating a better lifting environment for other coins. Each bull market is generally divided into three stages; we are currently in the first stage, the second stage will involve rapid violent sell-offs and washouts, during which altcoins will generally follow suit and plummet but will stop falling before Bitcoin and quickly rebound. In this stage, this bull market may differ from previous ones; it used to be familiar patterns like 312, 519, but this time it may resemble the sharp washout pattern we saw a few days ago. This is because the demand for Bitcoin is too strong; not only are Wall Street investors interested, but several countries also plan to include it as part of their national strategic reserves. Therefore, a linear drop like 519 is generally unlikely unless a huge black swan event occurs. Since it's called a black swan, it is certainly difficult to predict and shouldn't be included in our considerations! Thus, during significant drops, don’t panic; just operate at the key points we advise. Bull markets are more about mindset; technicals are secondary! The third stage is the real bull frenzy, where altcoins will rise alongside Bitcoin and continue to surge for a while after Bitcoin peaks, then the bull market will end, and the dust will settle! If we analyze our current position, it's easy to see that we are at a node transitioning from the first stage to the second stage, indicating that the major movement is still ahead, and the future is very promising!
So why do we feel like we haven't made much money? When will the altcoin season finally kick off? The answer lies within Ethereum; as the leader of altcoins, only when Ethereum truly breaks through its historical high and stabilizes can the altcoin season fully commence! But then the question arises: with Ethereum being so weak this time, can it really break its historical high and start a new major market? Personally, I believe it is highly probable! First, let's look at Ethereum's current staking data: a total of 23.61 million ETH staked, accounting for 19.38% of the total ETH supply. So far, only two coins have come through ETFs: Bitcoin and Ethereum. The inflow speed of Bitcoin's funds is clearly slowing down, given that it is in a high-level consolidation phase, and institutions also need to assess the risks, so they are focusing on Ethereum, which has not yet reached a new high. From the data, the amount of funds flowing into Ethereum has been accelerating recently, and the well-known Binance futures are reducing their Bitcoin positions while increasing their Ethereum holdings, and the Trump family continues to buy Ethereum! Looking around, many friends can’t hold on anymore and have sold Ethereum for other coins, making their portfolios lighter! Additionally, the Pectra upgrade in March next year is just a few months away, which will further enhance Ethereum's performance, security, scalability, and user experience. Especially the improvements in scalability and usability will greatly promote the future ecological landing of Ethereum's actual applications! Historically, Ethereum has always been hyped before major upgrades, so based on comprehensive analysis, Ethereum has the foundation to initiate a major market; it's just a matter of time. In other words, the major altcoin season will definitely return; we just need to wait for the right moment!
In the short term, although the rebound has not completely ended, the Bitcoin chart is not looking healthy, while Ethereum is still okay. Overall, a second bottom is highly probable, and then we can operate a wave, at which point we will discuss it in the group based on the market!
Since the future outlook for altcoins is promising, we must discuss track selection and coin selection. From a broad track division, each market cycle has several main lines that must be monitored. First is the new public chain; this track produces some quality coins in every bull market. Public chains are good vehicles for storytelling, and large institutional funds are willing to participate. We have mentioned many times that this track should be laid out, and several quality varieties have already emerged, such as sol and sui. However, some varieties are also worth noting, like the old leader apt, which is the original little brother of sui. The former big brother will inevitably receive funds' attention again. However, apt is currently affected by the negative news of the founder's departure, and its price performance is not good. It will likely take some time to recover, so we can gradually lay out.
Near, which focuses on sharding technology and user-friendly experiences, is supported by the halo of Grayscale holdings. This year, they are also venturing into AI, with their foundation launching an AI incubation program that has already incubated six teams. Additionally, Grayscale's new decentralized AI fund established in July has made Near one of the highest-weighted assets in that fund, so this coin has decent potential moving forward.
Other notable mentions include SEI, ftm (wealthy in South Korea), and ICP, all of which are also good targets.
Next is the meme track. In the last bull market, memes were viewed as a contrarian indicator. Old investors should remember that when the animal park went wild, with dogs, cats, snakes, and monkeys flying around, it indicated that the market was nearing its end. However, this time it has become a pervasive track throughout the market, with Binance listing so many meme coins that it can be said to have completely washed its image. The base of participants in memes is large, mainly relying on community strength combined with funds for market making, so there isn't much to analyze in this track; just watch community consensus and storytelling.
Recommendations: PEPE (focus), BOME, wif, floki, bonk, act, pnut
The AI track has been a bit quiet for a while, mainly because of the fierce market activity before March this year, which has overdrawn some of the future. However, this track is definitely unavoidable; AI is a new productive force and a revolution that changes the world. Moreover, the main battlefield is basically in the United States, so this track will definitely continue to be hyped. Even if it seems far-fetched and lacks practical implementation, isn't the financial market all about concepts?
In this area, I am relatively optimistic about wld (strong庄), arkm (quality), fet, tao (quality), lpt (strong explosiveness), nfp (small market cap), render (quality)
I want to emphasize wld; this coin was smashed to 1.284 after a massive unlock, and then began to oscillate upwards. Currently, 0.05 chips are being unlocked daily, amounting to over 5 million coins, which is a significant amount. Retail investors typically refuse to jump in, making the market lighter. Looking at the unlocking data: community unlock: approximately 49.33%; initial development team unlock: approximately 28.56%; investor unlock: approximately 20.11%. The majority is from the community, but this part is dispersed across many accounts and wallets, making it difficult to form concentrated selling pressure. The development team and investors should have also reached a consensus on interests, choosing not to sell at the price bottom; otherwise, the coin price would have already hit new lows! In terms of trends, it has established an upward channel, outperforming most coins during the same period. Combined with the volume situation at the bottom and the chart structure, it can be reasonably determined that the main player has conducted a large amount of accumulation in this bottom range, aiming for the long term. Moreover, the main trading of Wld is relatively aggressive, so the future upside potential is quite considerable and worth laying out!
In fact, we all understand this round of market activity; it is mainly led by Wall Street elites and institutions in the United States. Therefore, we need to consider what these American institutions are doing and where they are focusing their efforts, which will help us find quality coins that can outperform the market.
Following this line of thought, the RWA track cannot be overlooked; I believe this track may be the most worthy of attention in this bull market. First, let's look at the data: tokenized real-world assets (RWA) grew from $8.4 billion at the end of 2023 to $13.5 billion by December 1, 2024 (excluding stablecoins), an increase of over 60%. Multiple analysts' predictions indicate that this industry could grow to at least $2 trillion and up to $30 trillion in the next five years—potentially increasing nearly 50 times. Asset management firms and traditional financial institutions like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are increasingly adopting tokenization of government securities and other traditional assets on permissioned and public blockchains, enabling near-instant cross-border settlement and 24/7 trading.
Institutions are attempting to use these tokenized assets as collateral for other financial transactions (such as those involving derivatives), which can simplify operations (like margin calls) and reduce risk. Additionally, the RWA trend is expanding beyond U.S. Treasury bonds and money market funds, gaining traction in areas like private credit, commodities, corporate bonds, real estate, and insurance. Ultimately, tokenization can simplify the entire construction and investment process of a portfolio by bringing it on-chain, although this may take a few more years.
Tokenized private credit and tokenized treasury bonds are the two largest segments in this market, accounting for $9.5 billion and $3 billion in market share respectively, totaling 89% of the entire on-chain RWA field.
Private credit occupies the vast majority of market valuation, and American institutions are expanding their influence in this market sector, with BlackRock and Franklin Templeton's tokenized treasury bond funds accounting for nearly 35% of the entire tokenized treasury bond market valuation.
Currently, the main players in this area are BlackRock and Franklin Templeton. Based on their movements, I think ONDO (large unlock in January, can be focused on after unlocking), AXL (focus), MKR (slow, stable), TRU (late market) and CRV (in cooperation with BlackRock) are all worth paying attention to.
Following the line of thought above, another clear track is the stablecoin track.
RWA assets being on-chain, the pathway for stablecoins is essential, and stablecoins are also a key part of the U.S. crypto strategic layout.
Let's look at the public data: in 2024, stablecoins achieved significant growth, with a total market value increase of 48%, reaching $193 billion (as of December 1). Based on the current trajectory, the industry could grow to nearly $3 trillion in the next five years. While this may seem high, considering that this valuation is only about 14% of the total U.S. M2 supply of $21 trillion compared to the current entire cryptocurrency scale.
The next wave of true adoption for cryptocurrencies may come from stablecoins and payments. Compared to traditional methods, they enable faster and cheaper transactions, leading to more payment companies wishing to expand their stablecoin infrastructure, thereby increasing the utilization of digital payments and remittances. In fact, we may soon see the main use case for stablecoins extend beyond transactions to global capital flows and commerce. However, beyond broader financial applications, stablecoins' ability to address the U.S. debt burden has also drawn political interest.
As of November 30, 2024, the stablecoin market has completed nearly $27.1 trillion in transactions, almost three times the $9.3 trillion in the same period of 2023. This includes a large number of peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers and cross-border business-to-business (B2B) payments. Companies and individuals are increasingly utilizing stablecoins like USDC to meet regulatory requirements and integrate extensively with payment platforms like Visa and Mastercard.
This track: ena, usual, forth, lista
Payment types: Algo, ADA, XRP, celo, rsr
depin: AR (strong庄), hnt, FIL (late market), iotx
gamefi: GALA (leader), mana, sand
Others: bico (focus), kda, astr, ssv, dydx, ens