Encrypted Internal Reference, Butcher's Dissection of Cattle 12-22

1. Key focus on financial data and events:

(1) January 29, 2025, today the probability of not lowering interest rates is 91.4% (note the risks)

(2) Geopolitical: Turbulence - Major progress! Ceasefire negotiations in Gaza enter the final stage (today's gold price 2621.39 USD)

(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.42

2. On-chain data and market sentiment:

(1) Market sentiment analysis: 59 (neutral)

(2) ETF dynamics: Negative inflow for two consecutive days (note the risks)

(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2 EH/s, transaction fee 7.39, gas: 6, S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822 USD

(4) Today's BTC weighted funding rate: 0.009% (the funding rate normal range fluctuates slightly)

(5) BTC market capitalization ratio 57.27%, negatively correlated, slight decline

(6) Today's volatility main logic review: Weekend reduced trading volume, note the risks

(7) Trading mindset: Cultivate conscience, follow the trend, do not be swayed by price fluctuations! It's easy to break the thief in the mountain, but hard to break the thief in the heart

Recent potential positives:

1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to the movement of the token $FTT )

2. Market conditions after Christmas

3. Institutions starting new layouts after year-end settlements

Recent potential negatives:

1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)

2. The U.S. pauses interest rate cuts (January)

3. Large options volatility on December 27 (pain point 84000 USD, nominal amount 14.209 billion USD)

The above content is for information sharing only,

not constituting any investment advice!

Investment involves risks, proceed with caution!