#圣诞行情分析 #加密市场反弹 #比特币市场波动观察
Encrypted Internal Reference, Butcher Cuts the Beef 12-24
1. Key Focus on Global Financial Data and Events:
(1) On January 29, 2025, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 91.4% (be cautious of risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitical: Palestinian officials: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are 90% complete. Israeli sources: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are not close to reaching an agreement. (Today's gold price 2614.47U)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 157.27 (Yen continues to depreciate, favorable for cryptocurrency)
2. On-chain Data and Market Sentiment:
(1) Market Sentiment Analysis: 55 (Neutral - up 1 from yesterday)
(2) ETF Dynamics: Negative inflow for 3 consecutive days, yesterday $BTC net outflow of 2380; $ETH net inflow of 39,900;
(3) Mining Data Analysis: 866.2 EH/s, transaction fee 7.39 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822U
(4) Today's BTC position weighted funding rate: 0.00106% (funding rate fluctuating slightly within the normal range)
(5) BTC market cap share 56.65%, (down 0.6% from yesterday)
(6) Bio Protocol (BIO) has become Binance's 63rd Launchpool project, officially opening on December 24 at 08:00 (Beijing time) for users to obtain BIO airdrop rewards by staking $BNB and FDUSD for a period of 10 days.
(7) Today's volatility main logic review: Christmas market, altcoins surge
(8) Daily Trading Philosophy: Actions can be good or malicious, to do good and eliminate evil is the principle of investigation
Recent Potential Positive Factors:
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to FTT token movements)
2. Christmas market
3. Institutions beginning new layouts after year-end settlement
Recent Potential Negative Factors:
1. Japan's next interest rate hike setback (January/March)
2. The U.S. pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large options volatility on December 27 (pain point 84000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)
The above content is for information sharing only,
not constituting any investment advice!
Investment carries risks, proceed with caution!