This week, the Federal Reserve finally confirmed the long-anticipated 'pivot,' and the statements and updates to economic forecasts from the central bank had a huge impact on the market. Market participants now expect the Fed to cut rates by about 40 basis points by December 2025, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise.

Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell from its historical high, and on Friday, it continued to decline, nearing $95,000. Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new historical high of over $108,000, and this round of decline in the crypto world has had a greater impact on altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin. Moreover, U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin ended a 15-day streak of inflows this week, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.

Bitcoin is still at $96,000, so why have altcoins lost all their gains?

The answer lies in the trading volume. Remember a few weeks ago when on weekends, several coins had trading volumes exceeding ETH or even BTC? Look at their current trends; I recall DOGE, PEPE, XRP, PNUT, ACT, but can't remember the others. Check their trends now, and you’ll see where the funds have gone; the money is trapped, so where is the altcoin season? Does money just fall from the sky?

Americans trade cryptocurrencies primarily Bitcoin, as it aligns with the principles of value investing. If forced to choose a few more, it might be RWA, as it can be valued. If I had to choose more, it could be leading public chains, as value can be generated here. Most other sectors are fleeting, often just products of industry insiders' fantasies, which traditional investors look down upon. By the time they understand, it might be the next cycle; the real altcoin season may present itself in another form, definitely not a widespread surge. Just look at this weekend's gainers, it's simply dismal.

The market's volatility over the weekend was still much lower; set your take profit and stop-loss orders, and you won’t need to check constantly. Christmas is coming, and overall, the holiday will tend to be quiet; the main goal is to flip contracts back and forth.

With Christmas approaching, the market will be relatively calm next week, although there are still some influential data points to watch. However, due to thin liquidity, market volatility may become significant. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the upcoming week:

Monday at 23:00, U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for December from the Conference Board;

Thursday at 21:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 21.

For the dollar, with the overall hawkish stance within the Federal Reserve, it is expected that the dollar will not easily lose its position gained this year, although low trading volumes during the holidays may cause some unnecessary fluctuations. Overall, if any market turmoil occurs during the holidays, it is more likely to impact U.S. stocks and bonds. The Fed's hawkish stance has not been welcomed on Wall Street, and as U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, selling may intensify.

If Bitcoin reaches $90,000 (the chance is slim), it will cause a massive liquidation of altcoins, providing an excellent buying opportunity.

If Bitcoin's structure breaks down, a large buying volume is expected to reappear around $90,000. In pure panic, it could plunge all the way to $85,000. Altcoins will completely crash.

The suitable buying price for ETH would be $3,000, and for SOL, it would be $160.

Currently, most altcoins do not have independent movements; they are basically following Bitcoin's actions. These coins should wait until Bitcoin firmly establishes a new high before funds come in to push prices up; otherwise, any upward movement will be futile as Bitcoin may retract and drop again.

So now we can only wait for the market to confirm before we enter, we might miss a bit of profit in the early stages, but having exited at a phase peak means we've already made a profit. As long as there isn't a spike of thirty points in one go, we still have an advantage when we enter.

In a bull market, many people are easily swayed by market fluctuations, missing opportunities, and eager to jump in; when they see others' coins rising, they become anxious to chase.

When you see your coin not rising, you want to switch positions; when you see volatility rising, you want to trade contracts. Chasing the ups and downs is very risky. Many people haven't experienced a bull market; they are dazed when prices rise and dazed when they fall, leading to unstable emotions. A day without trading feels uncomfortable; they would rather lose money than wait, and when they finally lose everything, they feel nothing and become subdued.

These are some operations that beginners inevitably face.

Although I can't get you all into the group to follow my operations to avoid these losing actions.

But I still want to share from my experience, there are opportunities, but they must be taken while ensuring the principal is preserved.

Don’t jump in and out based on what you hear from one source and then the next; this back-and-forth searching for excitement will leave you drained, and your capital will be drained along with it.

If you want to follow the group's strategy, that’s fine; at least it can ensure you won't lose money, which is the most basic.

Even though the information on the platform is delayed compared to the timely updates in group chats, keeping up will still ensure steady profits.