Today is the winter solstice. Boss Crab wishes everyone a happy holiday. Don't forget to eat dumplings!
Last night's PCE data pulled the market back again. Don't worry about missing the bottom and feeling anxious. The weekend market is just a game among retail investors. Yesterday, Bitcoin's ETF was still in a state of outflow, which means the risk has not been eliminated yet. After all, next week is Christmas. I've mentioned many times that this year's market is quite large, and with foreigners celebrating the Spring Festival, the outflow may be more severe than usual. Let's patiently wait for clear trading opportunities on the right side.
The market collectively crashed yesterday. Could it be that this round of altcoin bull run lasted only a short month?
Of course not! This year, ETH/BTC hasn't risen at all. Generally, this exchange rate should rise during a bull market. Even if the leading altcoin this round is SOL, the SOL/BTC exchange rate hasn't risen this year either. So it's not that the altcoin bull run has passed; it just hasn't arrived yet! In the U.S., funds have already started to withdraw. In the past two days, Bitcoin's ETF has netted an outflow of 900 million USDT. This can be considered an impact of capital fleeing. What could lead the market higher later on might be the entry of reserve funds. Bitcoin's rise is like a relay race, with several handoffs of capital in between. While there will certainly be significant fluctuations and corrections in the short term, remember that the long-term trend is upward. Stay firmly invested.
Currently, large funds are only focused on Bitcoin, but altcoins are definitely essential helpers in Bitcoin's growth process. Altcoins provide leverage for Bitcoin's rise and are also the main force attracting retail funds. Otherwise, given Bitcoin's scale and price, it would be challenging for retail investors to get involved. This is an important part of Bitcoin's positive cycle. Conversely, after Bitcoin encounters a rise bottleneck, funds will flow into altcoins, nourishing them to enter a bull market. This will attract more participants. The two are mutually reinforcing, which has been the model used in several bull markets, and this time is no exception. So let's patiently wait; the altcoin bull run will eventually come.
Although the market's interest rate cut expectations for next year have been halved, there will still be rate cuts, and we also need to observe data to evolve the subsequent basis for rate cuts. Furthermore, next month Trump will officially take office, and family funds are continuously buying crypto assets. There will be more favorable support for crypto in the future.
Since we anticipate that the market will be crazier than the last round, what should matter most now is whether you have chips, whether you have capital to hold a position in the future market, rather than worrying about short-term fluctuations of several points downward.
During festive seasons, there is a demand for liquidity withdrawal. With this round of the market being so large, we must also guard against another adjustment that could collapse the market. As long as a washout gives you the opportunity to pick up cheap chips, you should gradually buy the dip while within your capacity, rather than blindly chasing high prices.
Hold onto your spot positions, avoid contracts, and wait for the market to be boosted again by the Trump effect. Hope you don't fantasize about making more, but strictly execute actions to double your principal and reduce your holdings in batches for profit, rather than being present every time there’s a dip. The current bottom line is that no matter how many extreme market conditions come later, do not harm your principal. This is a red line. The reason we didn't harm our principal yesterday is precisely due to the profits and security brought by the frequent layouts of double coins by Boss Crab in November!
Has the market stopped falling?
From the rebound after the sharp drop, it can be seen that for now, stability has been achieved, but this is not a signal to buy the dip. This also relates to yesterday's PCE data, as well as institutions predicting that Ethereum's ETF staking might pass, and Trump increasing his position in ETH again. However, the weekend's movements are still a game among retail investors, meaning that after a significant drop, there will naturally be some capital intervention, but this intervention cannot be sustained for long. For example, if Bitcoin's ETF starts trading next Monday and there is an outflow, the market will still fall into a phase of panic adjustment.
Currently, BTC needs a capital push to quickly break through the whole numbers. Although MicroStrategy has already begun a one-month pause, BlackRock and publicly traded companies are still active, so there's no need to worry about the bull market ending or prolonged adjustments. MSTR will officially be included in the Nasdaq 100 on the 23rd-24th, and large capital pushers are preparing.
Continuing to discuss the market, it won't be permanently down. The best operation at this stage is to wait for right-side trading instead of risking buying the dip halfway up, especially since next week's trend will still depend on the ETF data.
You can consider the rebound these days as an opportunity to reduce your holdings. Many were confused yesterday about whether to cut losses. Boss Crab's unified thought is that if you didn't reduce your holdings when it was halved, then just hold on. If it returns to your cost level in the next two days, that's your opportunity to reduce. It’s normal to set stop-losses for waves; if you reach the position, just take the loss, and don’t feel sorry for it because the upcoming opportunities are enough for you to grasp. The scary thing about the market is not the crash, but that after the crash, you have no bullets to operate when the market stabilizes—that's the most frightening!
We have already endured three years of bear market. To be more specific, we have endured an 8-month adjustment after the continuous downturn in March and April. Are we short of just these few days? Let's patiently wait for the right-side trading opportunities after Christmas!