Yesterday, $BTC dropped significantly to 92,232, very close to the support level of 90,800. The rebound that followed had substantial trading volume and completely recovered yesterday's losses, indicating that both buying and selling pressure for Bitcoin are relatively strong.
From a positive perspective:
The selling pressure from ETFs has started to decrease, with the net outflow of FBTC+ARKB+BITB+BTC dropping from 548.6 million USD two days ago to 152.5 million USD yesterday;
The open interest has shown a significant decrease, falling from a peak of 68.1 billion USD to 61.8 billion USD, although it is still relatively high compared to the low of 58.2 billion USD in December;
Compared to the trading volume during the rise from November 5 to November 22, the trading volume during the past three days of decline is not considered large, indicating that the selling pressure for Bitcoin is not too significant, which also means that the bull market has not ended, and the probability of dropping below 90,000 is relatively small.
From a negative perspective:
There are large amounts of trapped positions between 99,000 and 103,000, forming a resistance area, making the probability of a direct upward breakout relatively low;
Based on past experience, such levels of adjustment typically take around two weeks. Although the decline in the past three days has been substantial, it is unlikely that this adjustment can be completed solely based on these three days of decline;
During the third major wave (from September 11, 2023, to March 14, 2024), the fourth sub-wave received support at the STH RP, while it is currently around 85,000.
Therefore, the probability that the fourth sub-wave of the fifth major wave has been completed is relatively low. One speculation for the future market development is that Bitcoin will consolidate for a period, and when the STH RP approaches 90,000, it will test the support level of 90,800. This is just one possibility, for reference only.
