The stock market rally through 2025 is likely to continue, but investors should consider preparing for the day when the market becomes overextended, according to UBS.
UBS global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite said in a note to clients that his team is "cautiously optimistic" about stocks in 2025, but warned that six of the seven prerequisites for a bubble to form have already occurred.
The bubble premise that has been fulfilled includes increasing earnings pressure and loss of market breadth. The remaining premise is loose monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another 25 basis points on Thursday, pushing the market further in this direction.
Gassweet suggests that if the market does turn into a bubble, investors should try to stick to stocks with more enduring growth stories. The report states: "In case we have not yet entered a bubble (35% chance), we would prefer to invest in places that can also be proved to have reasonable valuations without a bubble," including artificial intelligence and electrification.
Hedge stocks identified by UBS include those that have already experienced strong gains during the AI boom, such as TSMC, Meta Platforms, and the utility company Vistra Corp. The stock price of Vistra Corp. has more than tripled in 2024.
Although these stocks may appear expensive from a valuation standpoint, selecting stocks with long-term growth stories can help the portfolio maintain its value relatively well when the market bubble bursts.
UBS's report states: "The problem with bubble theory is that when the bubble bursts, investors often lose 80% of their funds (as seen in Japan after the end of 1989, the internet bubble, or Nifty 50). We can only assign a 35% probability to the bubble, but that is 10% higher than before."
Additionally, UBS maintains a bullish outlook on gold for the next 12 months, expecting the precious metal to reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of next year. UBS recommends allocating about 5% of a dollar-denominated balanced portfolio to gold as a diversification investment.
UBS pointed out that central banks around the world are likely to continue increasing their gold holdings for reserve diversification. The latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that the net purchases of gold by global central banks reached the highest monthly level of the year in October. UBS expects that driven by de-dollarization, central banks will purchase 982 tons of gold this year, up from the bank's previous forecast of 900 tons.
Article forwarded from: Jin Shi Data