The cryptocurrency market currently has overly high expectations for the United States to establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, while ignoring other countries. Research indicates that sovereign wealth funds in Asia and the Middle East are more likely to be the next driving force.

After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, the price of Bitcoin plummeted, indicating that investors may be placing too much emphasis on the theoretical possibility of a Bitcoin strategic reserve. The next step will see more nation-states adopting Bitcoin, but the next step is more likely to involve sovereign wealth funds in Asia or the Middle East, as they already manage highly diversified asset pools.

The continued appreciation of the dollar poses macro risks for Bitcoin, as the dollar's rise is also related to a contraction in global money supply, which often adversely affects Bitcoin and other crypto assets. In fact, the Federal Reserve's net liquidity has been steadily decreasing. Tightening liquidity and a strong dollar are also the biggest risks facing Bitcoin...

The decline in Bitcoin has led to drastic changes in the positions of bulls and bears. Long positions are being liquidated, and short positions are taking profits, with the price of Bitcoin seeking support in the range of $100,000 to $98,000. To reverse the downward trend, the price of Bitcoin must reclaim the range of $100,000 to $101,400 and establish a solid footing on the daily chart.

Additionally, the 4-hour chart shows that bulls need Bitcoin to exhibit strong buying power around $100,000 and successfully close above $101,400 to solidify the upward trend. If the subsequent trend cannot maintain this level, it may retest the support level and buying accumulation area near $98,000.