💣 December 19th Afternoon Bitcoin/Ethereum Market Views. 💣
The interest rate meeting concluded with a 25 basis point rate cut, which is not a positive sign because the 25 basis point cut was already anticipated and fully priced in. The dot plot shows only two rate cuts in 2025, totaling just 50 basis points, which is the main reason for today's early morning decline. Additionally, Powell's somewhat hawkish remarks further exacerbated the situation.
$BTC Viewpoint:
Bitcoin experienced a volume breakout at 100313, closing above 100313 on the hourly chart, consider going long on the right side and retracting the stop loss.
If Bitcoin pulls back to 98744 and shows a false breakdown, it is possible to go long one more time; the low of the false breakdown is the stop loss level. If there's no retraction, do not go long.
Be aware of a potential false breakout at 101844; if it occurs, consider lightly shorting one position, with the high of the false breakout as the stop loss level.
If 98744 breaks down with volume and fails to recover, look to short on the right side, retracting the stop loss. Pay attention to changes in volume.
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For conservative traders, wait for a direct long at 97434, with a stop loss below 97000.
The Bitcoin 4-hour chart has completed a 1:1 retracement; if it continues, the 1.618 position is around 96757.
Bitcoin must break and hold above 101753 on the hourly chart to look upwards towards 102992-104182.
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Currently, Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart has not truly broken below 99298; observe whether the closing at 12 o'clock will be below 99298. If it closes below 99298, look down towards 97365-94332.
Resistance above: 101775-102751-103555
Support below: 100269-99569-98344
This afternoon, there is also a Bank of Japan meeting, hoping for some positive news to counter the negative impact from this morning.
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$ETH Thoughts:
Ethereum experienced a volume breakout at 3662; consider going long on the right side and retracting the stop loss.
If it pulls back to 3540 and confirms support, consider a small long position; if it breaks below 3500, stop loss is required.
If 3540 breaks down with volume, consider shorting on the right side, retracting the stop loss.
Ethereum on the 4-hour chart poses no major issues as long as it does not break below 3565; a spike down does not count. However, if it falls below 3565, then look for support at 3440-3282.
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For Ethereum, watch for 3797 and consider a light short position; if it breaks 3828, stop loss is required. Do not hold onto losing trades.
Ethereum must break and hold above 3711 on the hourly chart, aiming for targets of 3783-3831.
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For left-side orders, go long directly at 3505, with a stop loss below 3470.
Resistance above: 3701-3751-3800
Support below: 3632-3593-3540
Ethereum on the 4-hour chart shows a hopeful three-pins bottoming structure; meeting adjourned.