In the early morning, the Federal Reserve announced a 25BP rate cut. Last night, the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates, but apart from the rate cut, almost all other remarks and actions were hawkish.
Looking back, the economy is getting stronger, interest rate cuts are slowing down, the dollar is appreciating, and gold, Bitcoin, and the stock market are all plummeting. The key is that the closing line is still ugly. This news is neither good nor bad, but it is always better than no decline, but it still fell sharply last night.
The interest rate cut at the end of the year was originally considered relatively unimportant news, because everyone generally knew that it would be a cut and market sentiment had already digested it, but no one knew it would be a "hawkish rate cut."
The dot plot shows that next year, interest rates may be cut twice, totaling 50BP, which is far below expectations. It will take at least the year after next to fall below 3.5%, which greatly affects the enthusiasm of the capital market. Therefore, this is the real impact and the reason for the decline of Bitcoin, altcoins, gold, and the stock market.
In fact, the decline of Bitcoin is relatively small, almost the same as the decline of the U.S. stock index, which is already unreasonable, and it should be more. The current price of Bitcoin is approaching the daily middle track/ema20 moving average position, and the price support is theoretically at 99680. If this position is maintained for 4-8 hours, there is still the possibility of a new high, with 99500 as the short-term strength and weakness watershed, and then touch one or two local highs to form the head of the head and shoulders top.
Another reason I said that Bitcoin will reach new highs in the short term is:
The decline this time was limited. Even in the case of major negative news, the liquidation map showed that there were no concentrated short orders opened, but mostly scattered short orders from retail investors.
Logically speaking, if Bitcoin starts to go bearish and shows a downward trend, there will definitely be a large number of short orders opened.
This experience has been verified twice before. This is not a spurious move, but something that the dealer will do when driven by profit.
Rumors started circulating yesterday that MicroStrategy might not be able to buy Bitcoin in January. If this is true, then the weekly level adjustment ideas in my chart should come true. Currently, the weekly level is looking at adjustments, but the daily highs may not be in place.
The picture shows a trend that I think may occur.
At present, the bulldozer trend of the daily line is still very obvious, and there is no sign of going bad. At present, it is still a market where you can buy every time it crashes to the daily moving average. I estimate that in order to reverse this situation, it still needs to touch up once or twice to lure more before it can crash.
There is also Japan's interest rate meeting today.
The importance of Japan's interest rate decision is greater than that of the US interest rate cut, because the uncertainty and unpredictability are too great. So how does Japan respond today?
I think it depends on whether Japan is strong enough. If it is strong enough, the possibility of raising interest rates is still very high. If Japan raises interest rates under the panic in the financial market caused by the hawkish remarks released by the Federal Reserve, the market may be more panicked. At the same time, the bottom is likely to be formed in the next period of time. This is the time to test position management.
If Japan does not raise interest rates, market sentiment will ease. The bottom has already been reached today and will slowly pull back in the future.
Generally speaking, the market is full of contradictions. For some retail investors who hold the right positions, the current position has little impact and the decline is not large; for those who hold full positions or heavy positions in some weak copycats, it will be very painful.
A few points when encountering such a large amount of information:
1. The ratio of short-term long positions and pending order positions should not exceed 15% of the account funds;
2. For positions with floating profits, set up capital loss protection as soon as possible to prevent the profit target from not being reached and the floating profits from turning into floating losses due to negative news;
3. If the price falls below the defense point, you can reduce your position by 10-15% of the position margin, and you can cover your position at a lower price to lower the average price. Some people think about losses when they are slightly trapped in a low-long position, which is the worst strategy.
If it was the previous few declines, I would have been more aggressive in reminding everyone that this was an opportunity. But looking at the 100,000 Bitcoin, more than 200 SOL, and 700 BNB... this position is really contradictory, and this market is completely unpredictable and has certain risks. In the end, I can only say that the risks and opportunities here are equally great.
That’s all I have to say today. During the bull market, many people want to have an exchange. If you really can’t handle the cryptocurrency circle by yourself, don’t force yourself. Come to me to become my apprentice, get the latest information, plan, embrace the bull market, improve your winning rate, and say goodbye to being trapped at high levels.
