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Macro News
1. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that China-US economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial and win-win, benefiting the people of both countries. The practice of generalizing the concept of national security and artificially setting up obstacles to normal economic and trade exchanges for political purposes violates the market economy, fair competition, and free trade principles that the US has always advocated, disrupts the stability of the global production and supply chain, and is not in the interests of any party.
2. The Central Rural Work Conference was held in Beijing from the 17th to the 18th. The conference emphasized that we must resolutely shoulder the important task of ensuring national food security, continuously enhance the supply and guarantee capabilities of important agricultural products such as grain, stabilize grain planting areas, and deeply promote large-scale yield improvement actions for grain and oil crops, strengthen agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, and ensure stable and bumper grain yields.
3. The Fed's December interest rate meeting - the decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was passed by 11:1, and the statement hinted at a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts; the dot plot shows that the forecast for interest rate cuts next year has been adjusted from 4 to 2; Powell said that he could be more cautious when considering interest rate adjustments in the future, and the path depends on making more progress in reducing inflation. It may take another year or two to reach the inflation target. It is unlikely to raise interest rates next year. Powell also said that the Fed has no intention of holding Bitcoin and has discussed the issue of tariffs affecting inflation.
4. According to CCTV, on the evening of December 18 local time, an anonymous Hamas official revealed that the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel have made significant progress in the negotiations on the phased release of detained persons and a ceasefire agreement. The official claimed that the first phase of the ceasefire agreement will last for 42 days, during which Israel will allow a large amount of humanitarian aid and equipment needed to repair and rebuild hospitals and public facilities in the Gaza Strip to enter the Gaza Strip.
5. The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that among the 19 officials, one official believes that there should be no interest rate cut in 2025, three officials believe that the interest rate should be cut by 25 basis points in total in 2025, 10 officials believe that the interest rate should be cut by 50 basis points in total in 2025, three officials believe that the interest rate should be cut by 75 basis points in total in 2025, one official believes that the interest rate should be cut by 100 basis points in total in 2025, and one official believes that the interest rate should be cut by 125 basis points in total in 2025.
6. "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: The addition of the wording "magnitude and timing" to the Federal Reserve's policy statement suggests that the pace of interest rate cuts will be slowed down to modify potential adjustments.
Global futures market changes
1. London base metals closed mixed, with LME copper up 0.62% at $9,045/ton, LME zinc down 1.14% at $3,001/ton, LME nickel up 0.5% at $15,580/ton, LME aluminum down 0.45% at $2,531/ton, LME tin down 0.06% at $29,030/ton and LME lead down 0.13% at $1,983/ton.
2. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 2.56% to 951.75 cents per bushel; corn futures down 1.35% to 437.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 0.69% to 541.25 cents per bushel.
3. International precious metal futures closed sharply lower, with COMEX gold futures down 2.34% to $2,599.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 3.61% to $29.805 per ounce.
4. International oil prices fell slightly, with the February 2025 contract of U.S. crude oil falling 0.29% to $69.45 per barrel. The February 2025 contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.4% to $72.90 per barrel.
5. Domestic commodity futures closed mixed at night trading. Most energy and chemical products rose, glass rose 2.18%, asphalt rose 1.35%, butadiene rubber rose 1.3%, and fuel oil rose nearly 1%. Black series fell across the board, coking coal fell 1.85%. Most agricultural products fell, soybean oil fell 2.21%, palm oil fell 1.85%, soybean No. 2 fell 1.34%, and soybean No. 1 fell 1.09%. Basic metals rose and fell, alumina rose 1.16%, Shanghai copper rose 0.57%, Shanghai tin rose 0.21%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.61%, and Shanghai lead fell 0.74%. Shanghai gold rose 0.03%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.05%.
Black hot news
1. According to SMM, since December 16, affected by the large-scale stable weather in the north and the southward movement of cold air, 26 cities in 6 provinces including Anhui, Shandong, Shaanxi and Shanxi issued heavy pollution weather warnings, and many places in the country have successively ushered in the trend of "stopping work, production and operation". It is reported that many places have clearly stated that they will suspend open-air operations such as mines and coal washing plants.
2. According to SMM's research, a stainless steel plant in South China plans to suspend production for maintenance from January 1, 2025 for a period of one and a half months. It is expected to affect the production of about 45,000 tons of 300 series and about 75,000 tons of 200 series, totaling 120,000 tons.
3. According to Mysteel, on December 18, news of environmental protection production restrictions came from the Luliang area, requiring Class B enterprises to reduce their coke oven load to within 80% of the designed production load; Class C enterprises to reduce their coke oven load to within 65% of the designed production load; and Class D enterprises to reduce their coke oven load to within 50% of the designed production load.
4. Data from Steel Valley Network shows that the national building materials social warehouse is 4.3263 million tons, a decrease of 77,300 tons from last week, a decrease of 1.76%; the factory warehouse is 2.8469 million tons, a decrease of 105,400 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.57%; the output is 3.9886 million tons, a decrease of 73,200 tons from last week, a decrease of 1.80%.
Hot news on agricultural products
1. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on December 18, China's palm oil imports in November were 170,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 61.4%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 2.48 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38.6%. China's soybean oil imports in November were 10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 84.9%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 270,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%.
2. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on December 18, China's sugar imports in November were 530,000 tons, up 21.9% year-on-year. The cumulative imports from January to November were 3.96 million tons, up 13.8% year-on-year.
3. On December 17, 2024, the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued an announcement stating that in response to the withdrawal application submitted by the applicant on December 10, 2024, it decided to terminate the anti-dumping investigation on saccharin originating in or imported from China.
4. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the commercial stocks of rapeseed oil and palm oil in my country rebounded slightly last week, while the stocks of soybean oil continued to decline. The commercial stocks of the three major vegetable oils increased slightly overall. Monitoring shows that on December 13, the total commercial stocks of the three major oils in China were 1.92 million tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous week, down 120,000 tons from the previous month, and down 350,000 tons from the same period last year.
5. China National Grain and Oils Corporation issued an announcement stating that according to the work arrangements of relevant departments, China National Grain and Oils Corporation will stop rotating sales of imported corn from now on.
6. The Brazilian Mato Grosso do Sul Soybean and Corn Growers Association (Aprosoja-MS) said that the 4.051 million hectares of soybeans planned to be planted in Mato Grosso do Sul in 2024/25 have been planted, 6.8% faster than the same period last year. The average soybean yield in Mato Grosso do Sul is expected to be 51.7 bags per hectare, and the total output is expected to be 13.977 million tons.
7. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported sales of 135,000 tons of corn and 120,000 tons of soybean meal to Colombia, both for delivery in 2024/2025.
8. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the National Conference of Directors of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Departments was held in Beijing on December 18. The meeting stressed that we must go all out to ensure grain and oil production, stabilize grain planting area, insist on increasing yield and quality simultaneously, take large-scale yield increase as a key measure, consolidate the results of soybean oil expansion by taking multiple oils simultaneously, and strive to win a bumper harvest of grain and agriculture. We must optimize the pig production capacity control mechanism, implement grain-saving actions in the breeding industry, accelerate the development of modern fisheries, and stabilize the supply of vegetables, cotton, sugar and gum.
9. Data released by the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration on the 18th showed that as of now, various grain entities across the country have purchased a total of more than 160 million tons of autumn grain, an increase of about 10% year-on-year; the average daily purchase volume reached more than 2 million tons, faster than the same period last year.
Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News
1. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on December 18, China's log imports in November were 2.84 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 33.04 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5%.
2. Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ): Japan's commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.01 million kiloliters to 10.58 million kiloliters in the week ending December 14.
3. According to Longzhong Information, as of December 18, 2024, China's total methanol port inventory was 1.0703 million tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons from the previous period.
4. According to SMM, a large alumina plant in Shandong has adjusted the delivery price of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda by 32% since December 19, reducing it by 20 yuan/ton from 840 yuan/ton; that is, the two-invoice system will be implemented at 820 yuan/ton (the 100% discount price is about 2563 yuan/ton).
5. The latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone in the United Arab Emirates showed that as of the week of December 16, the total inventory of refined oil products at the Port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates was 17.811 million barrels, an increase of 2.013 million barrels from the previous week, reaching a three-month high.
6. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of bottle flake options at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. The relevant matters of the listing are hereby announced as follows: Bottle flake options will be listed for trading from December 27, 2024 (Friday), and the call auction time will be from 8:55 to 9:00 on that day. The first day of listing contracts include bottle flake option contracts with the underlying months of 2503, 2504 and 2505.
7. Data from the Joint Oil Database JODI on Wednesday showed that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in October rose to a four-month high, increasing by 174,000 barrels per day from 5.751 million barrels per day in September to 5.925 million barrels per day. At the same time, Saudi crude oil production fell slightly from 8.975 million barrels per day in September to 8.972 million barrels per day.
8. The EIA report showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 900,000 barrels to 421 million barrels in the week ending December 13, a decrease of 0.2%; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 500,000 barrels to 393.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.1%.
Metal Hot News
1. The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in November 2024, China exported 670,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%; the cumulative exports from January to November were 6.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%. In November, China exported 190,000 tons of alumina, a year-on-year increase of 56.7%; the cumulative exports from January to November were 1.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%.
2. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's alumina production in November 2024 was 7.557 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%; the cumulative production from January to November was 78.094 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; China's lead production in November was 659,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; China's zinc production in November was 567,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%.
3. The Argentine Chamber of Mining (CAEM) expects Argentina's mineral exports to grow by 6% this year, mainly due to increased lithium sales and higher gold and silver prices.
4. According to people familiar with the matter, India's surge in gold imports in November was due to miscalculation, which caused India's trade deficit to hit a record high and pushed the Indian rupee exchange rate to a record low. Indian officials may have counted the gold stored in warehouses twice. It may be that the change in the counting system caused such trouble.
5. The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that in October 2024, the global refined aluminum production will be 6.0856 million tons, consumption will be 6.1259 million tons, and there will be a supply shortage of 40,300 tons; the global refined nickel production will be 301,600 tons, consumption will be 282,500 tons, and there will be a supply surplus of 19,100 tons; the global refined copper production will be 2.3309 million tons, consumption will be 2.397 million tons, and there will be a supply shortage of 66,100 tons.
Talking about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!
1. After the breakout of the rice cake, the downward space opens up. Will the weak market trend continue?
Guosen Futures analysis pointed out that in the international arena, CBOT soybeans fluctuated and fell, and the market continued to fall. The lower-than-expected US soybean exports and the pressure of Brazil's soybean bumper production caused US soybeans to fluctuate and fall. The market was weak and the previous lows might be tested. In the domestic arena, the information from the Grain and Oil Business Network showed that the domestic soybean meal spot continued to fall. Rizhao Bangji 43 protein soybean meal imported crushing spot traders reported 2,820 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Although the supply of soybean meal in South China is tight, the impact of soybean meal spot nationwide is limited. The soybean meal market encountered selling pressure. After the Brazilian premium and discount fell, US soybeans fell again, which made the cost of imported soybeans continue to fall. After the soybean meal fell below the 2,600 line, the downward space opened up. The weak market of soybean meal market continued. Short-term operation.
2. Given the particularity of Apple’s fund holdings and the low inventory data, should we be cautious in shorting?
Xinhu Futures analysis pointed out that previously due to delivery issues, all contracts rose sharply, but as the delivery enthusiasm decreased, the far-month contracts returned to the logic of increasing production based on fundamentals. From a fundamental perspective, the market has been moving at a normal pace recently, and the enthusiasm for stocking up for the Double Holidays is not obvious. The market transaction situation is worse than expected. At the same time, a large number of alternative fruits are on the market with high sweetness, which has a certain impact on the demand side of apples. In the later period, after the delivery market, market sentiment has cooled significantly. The logic of increasing production in the fundamentals of the new season apples supports the high-altitude thinking, but considering the particularity of Apple's capital holdings and the problem of low warehousing data, it is necessary to be cautious in chasing shorts, and at the same time, it is necessary to pay close attention to changes in delivery.
Overview of recent important futures data and events
1. At 21:30 on December 19, the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States was released. The preliminary data released by the United States previously showed that the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States was the same as the initial value, at 2.8%, and the growth rate slowed down from 3% in the second quarter. However, the GDP report still shows that the resilience of the US economy is amazing.
2. At 3:30 on December 20, NYMEX New York crude oil January futures were affected by the transfer of positions and the last transaction on the floor was completed at 3:30 on December 20, and the last transaction on the electronic disk was completed at 6:00 in the morning. Please pay attention to the announcement of the expiration and month change of the trading venue to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of the US oil contract on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, so please pay more attention.
3. On December 20, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) will announce global and Chinese primary aluminum production in November. Previous data showed that global primary aluminum production in October was 6.221 million tons, and China's primary aluminum production was 3.72 million tons, both of which increased compared with September data. We will pay attention to whether the November data can continue to rise.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data