What is the terrifying aspect of a downtrend?
1. Long Cycle.
In terms of form, the most frightening aspect of a downtrend is that the “cycle” is particularly long. A short downtrend may last for a few weeks or even a few months, while a long downtrend can persist for 1-2 years, or even 3-4 years.
Although it seems that the short-term decline isn't significant, when the cycle is extended, the downward space of a downtrend can be more horrifying than a crash.
2. Large Decline.
If we look at each small cycle, the decline in a downtrend isn't considered large. However, if we calculate a complete downtrend cycle, you'll find that the overall decline of a downtrend is much larger than that of a crash.
3. Retail Investors Are Easily Deceived in a Downtrend.
A downtrend is a process that easily deceives retail investors:
During a downtrend, there will be rebounds, which can lead retail investors to have a sense of luck during the decline, thus blindly holding on; a downtrend is a slow decline process that can lead retail investors to “habitually” accept small daily losses while expecting to break even, evolving into the “boiling frog” scenario;
In a downtrend, the main force often spreads some positive news, leading retail investors to have misplaced confidence, ultimately resulting in “Don’t go, fellow villager!”
4. The long duration of a downtrend can cause retail investors to lose patience waiting for the bottom, causing them to exhaust their funds too early and buy in at high levels;
Therefore, for retail investors, compared to the ferocity of a crash, a downtrend is actually more brutal!