The market sentiment these days has been incredibly weak, yet Bitcoin continues to make new highs. This wave of market action has firmly established it as a Bitcoin bull market, while altcoins continue to follow Ethereum in a dire state. If Ethereum cannot break through as expected in the upcoming phase, doubts about whether the altcoin season will arrive are likely to escalate.

This afternoon, under already poor market conditions, a certain Web3 wallet launched an X Space, announcing the opening of an Alpha column for the market to decide on the specific categories of tokens that could be listed. Just when I wanted to make a big move, I ended up being hit hard, and the public outcry against a certain token suddenly escalated.

Firstly, during the Space live broadcast, the official account announced the TG group after many industry insiders joined, revealing the first batch of alpha token sequences. Shortly after, the 'sister' announced that the group was fake, and by that time, some partners had already lost over $100,000 in just twelve minutes. Regarding whether it's the official group, it was communicated during the live broadcast, and I believe it is most likely genuine, although some internal details may not have reached consensus.

Secondly, regarding the tokens listed recently, I find it utterly frustrating to comment. Pengu, a project with a market cap of 3 billion, was initially marked with a market cap of only around 400 million. Such a hot project has led some astute speculative players to enter heavily, and after the data was revised, the market immediately surged and then pulled back.

Like pengu, the recently launched move also peaked immediately upon launch, completely diluting its market cap to over 6 billion USD. The biggest complaints about this year's certain token are its popularity and high market cap. The combination of the two has directly drained the already limited market liquidity. What's even more frustrating is that many people's coins had no cost in the beginning. The market has gradually evolved into a game of exchanging air for USDT, while Bitcoin continues to hit new highs and retail investors keep losing money.

So the afternoon really turned into a discussion about a certain token's social status. Regarding the listing of alpha tokens, it is vastly different from the logic of Huobi's voting for listings in previous years; capital ultimately dominates everything. From the perspective of industry development, this year we have not seen any significant push from a certain token led by the 'sister', reminding me of her classic remark when facing doubts about VC tokens: 'If you don't believe in it, you can short it!' Isn't this completely irresponsible rhetoric treating retail investors as mere fodder?

Regarding the recent market situation, at least under the current circumstances of persistent liquidity scarcity, and knowing that this round of the bull market is different from previous ones, I believe the arrival of the altcoin season will proceed as expected, with the only difference being the form of market performance. Therefore, if it's just a slight pullback in short-term profits, after this round of correlated pullback around Christmas, it wouldn't be surprising for the market to warm up again.

In terms of data, whether it's the Ethereum spot ETF or the Bitcoin spot ETF, there has been a net inflow for more than half a month, which sufficiently indicates that off-market macro capital is optimistic about the crypto market. That said, I must remind everyone that regardless of the position, maintaining half a position in Ethereum or Bitcoin is absolutely important. This concept has been shared with everyone for four years! Time is getting more precious as it goes by.

Tonight at 3 AM, the Federal Reserve will hold its last interest rate decision of the year, and it is highly probable that a 25 basis point rate cut will be implemented. This will likely bring a pause to the short-term panic in the market, especially regarding the altcoin market. The market is not without opportunities; it's just that most of us cannot wait for that moment.

If time continues to move forward, I expect that in the first quarter of 2025, the altcoin sector will experience its first concentrated rebound, and a significant portion of altcoins will likely peak directly in the first quarter of next year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to rise, but the space for growth is limited, and the biggest uncertainty in the market currently hovers around Ethereum.

Still, the point is that in cyclical markets, short-term market trends possess immense uncertainty, but the future of the market has great certainty. Just like Bitcoin's journey of hitting new highs, accompanied by several instances of severe imbalance in long-short ratios, technical divergence, etc., in the face of the trend, all short-term negatives can be resolved with a quick adjustment. If one adjustment isn't enough, then just make another.

BTC: There's nothing much to say about Bitcoin; the violent surge is currently facing pressure. The bullish trend on the daily chart remains unchanged, and technical adjustments are ongoing daily, so be patient and wait for the right entry point.

ETH: I continue to remain bullish on Ethereum! The adjustments after the short-term drop are noticeably stronger than before. In any case, this thing carries more hope from retail investors than before the market warmed up. Let's look forward to the dawn of recovery.

The altcoin market has seen data in the evening, and I personally believe that the macro perspective does not have a logic of continuing new lows and is not continuously at new lows. If it simply involves reducing leverage to decrease the long-short ratio, then a few quick adjustments can suffice. Every year, around Christmas, the outflow of Western capital is accompanied by a certain weakening of the market. Overall, from the perspective of ETF funds, this year's situation is slightly better; we just need to endure and it will pass. However, for altcoins, it's enough not to heavily invest in a single coin or fully allocate in a single sector; there's not much more to say. Everyone's altcoins have dropped, and the market suffers together!

For other altcoins, feel free to discuss in the comments.

The fear and greed index is at 81 today.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!​​​#币安Alpha项目公布 $BTC