$BTC The Fed is facing a profound paradox.

Today is the last Fed meeting of 2024, and markets expect a 25 basis point rate cut with a 96% probability. However, it faces a profound dilemma.

On the one hand, markets are breaking record after record. Stocks are at historic highs, home prices are at their peak, Bitcoin is breaking records, and even meme coins like "Fartcoin" are reaching $500 million in valuations.

On the other hand, there is the risk of rising inflation. CPI, PPI and PCE - three important inflation indicators - are all on the rise again. The Cleveland Fed's December forecast is 2.86%. Core PCE is approaching 3%.

The interesting thing is that long-term interest rates have been rising since the Fed started giving pivot signals. The 10-year bond yield increased by 85 basis points. The popular bond ETF TLT fell by 11% in three months. 30-year mortgage rates increased from 6% to 7%.

What does this chart tell us?

The market is playing chess with the Fed. As the Fed signals a rate cut, long-term interest rates rise. Because the market is worried about inflation returning and the Fed easing too early.

This concern is not unfounded.

In the 1970s, the Fed made the same mistake - it declared that it had ended the war on inflation too early and lowered interest rates. The result? Inflation returned and got even stronger.

Moreover, today, unlike the 1970s, there is a huge national debt. Interest payments have exceeded $1 trillion annually. This makes the Fed's hand difficult.

We will most likely see a 25 basis point cut at today's meeting. However, the real question is what will happen next. Will the Fed continue on its path in January or will it take the market's message and pause?

I lean more towards the second scenario. Because:

1. Inflation is not yet fully under control

2. Financial conditions are at their loosest level in 24 years

3. Speculative behavior is increasing again

4. The labor market is showing signs of weakening

So the coming period will probably be a return to a period of "higher, longer" interest rates.