December 18, 2024

Tonight, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on interest rates. The market currently expects that the rate will continue to fall by 25 basis points. If the market continues to move in accordance with expectations, there will not be much volatility. The possibility of another 50 basis point decline is very small. In fact, for the macroeconomic situation, when the US dollar interest rate is the highest, it is the most difficult time for the market. Obviously, this period of time has passed. It is expected that there will be three more interest rate cuts next year. As the pace of interest rate cuts accelerates, more US dollars will emerge in the market.

This wave of big cake rise has obviously benefited from increased liquidity and boosted investor confidence, and ETFs have opened the inflow of US stock funds, which has led to the $100,000 in big cakes. However, it is worth noting that the recent ETFs are still in a state of net inflow, but the prices of big cakes and Ethereum have shown a stagflationary trend, especially the pressure of Ethereum at 4,000 points, which is actually far less than that of 4,800 points.

This has to be said that the right to speak for big cakes has not actually been mastered by Wall Street capital. I think it is still in the hands of the mining circle and the ancient whales, especially when it is really time to smash the market, it can be done. In addition, judging from the trend of cottage stocks, it is indeed obvious that they need to take a break. The main players who pull the market seem not to want to continue playing with the big cakes, but are selling at high prices. The recent decline is the best proof.

In terms of the market, at present, at this position, I think there is a trend of "half-time break" in the long term, that is, the two festivals have to pass, but the bull market has not ended, but continued after the rest, which is also in line with the cycle rhythm of the most fomo next year. In the medium term, the entire market has a relatively obvious signal of shipment, including some big investors around me, who have basically completed the cleaning of high positions. Therefore, in the past two weeks, I have also strongly advised everyone to reduce their positions in batches. So far, if the positions have been reduced by more, you can buy back when the market falls recently and do some swings, but the principle is that the total position cannot be more than before, or just keep U patiently and wait for the market to fall irrationally.

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