This week is the last super central bank week of the year, with a focus on the interest rate decisions of the U.S. and Japan:
The U.S. will announce at 3 AM on Thursday:
After last week's CPI data met expectations, this rate cut of 25 basis points was not surprising, with CME giving a probability of 97%, reflecting that the market has fully digested this expectation. Therefore, even if the rate cut becomes a reality, its direct impact on the stock and crypto markets may no longer be viewed as a positive. However, Powell's speech and his outlook for the January FOMC will become the focus of the market. CME data shows that the probability of maintaining the interest rate in January is as high as 80%, which will be key in the upcoming market games.
On the same day, it is also the time for Japan to adjust interest rates:
According to current information, the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates in December. This news is comforting for the market. If Japan insists on raising rates in December, although the impact is relatively small, it may put significant psychological pressure on the market. However, the Federal Reserve's response strategy is not hopeless. If Powell can emphasize that rate cuts are not due to a weak U.S. economy but for more macro considerations, this will bring positive signals to the market, at least avoiding concerns about falling into an economic recession.
When will it be altcoins' turn to rise?
Bitcoin has reached a new high, but altcoins are generally in a correction state, especially those on CEXs, with nine out of ten declining.
Although the total market capitalization of the crypto market has surpassed 3.9 trillion, reaching a new high, this is mainly attributed to Bitcoin's contribution, which has also surpassed a market share of 57.38%. The funding rates on major CEXs do not support altcoins continuing to rise, generally remaining below 0.01%. Typically, a funding rate above 0.01% indicates a bullish market, while below indicates a bearish market.
Ethereum's performance is relatively stable. Although the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still adjusting, last week, inflows into Ethereum ETFs reached a new high of $850 million, showing positive sentiment from external funds toward ETH. Several institutions predict that Ethereum will reach its historical peak before the end of the year, which I also think is not a big problem, as long as the Ethereum Foundation doesn’t cause any issues; ATH is just a thin layer of window paper.
The turnover period for ETH has passed; this week is the acceleration time. First, let ETH open up space upwards, and then altcoins will follow the rise. The ETH that is driving the rally has become much clearer in its outlook!
Although Bitcoin is currently dominant, many people have lost confidence in altcoins again, but I am very optimistic about the market going forward:
This is just the beginning! There are several waves of positive news from December to March that will drive the rise. Don't be swayed by those bears who are constantly predicting a drop to 80k or 70k, or talking about a black swan event causing a huge crash. If you are so bearish in a bull market, I advise you to exit early and stop playing.
There have been some small adjustments in altcoins lately, but after the adjustments, they will continue to rise. In this case, it is not advisable to chase high-priced coins; instead, focus on strong coins that have been adjusted for a month or have experienced a sharp drop, as there are significant opportunities.
Investment, as always, is about finding what makes you comfortable, looking for the right price point, and having sufficient cost-effectiveness and faith; this is the best approach for ordinary people. Cost-effectiveness is crucial, and buying at a comfortable price allows for patient holding. Don't let market fluctuations make you lose your appetite; then there's no point, as it undermines the essence of investing. Investing is meant to make life happier, not more haggard.
A good buying price makes it easy to take profits. Remember?