On December 19th at 3 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.5% to 4.75% down to 4.25% to 4.50%. This is the third consecutive rate cut since the Federal Reserve started the easing cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points.

After Bitcoin reached the position of 108,400, it began to decline continuously. As long as it’s not a crash, the current decline is beneficial for the long-term bull market. After all, some profit-taking is necessary. If you're liquidated after a small drop, it’s time to seriously reconsider your trading strategy.

If you can't learn anything from liquidation, there will be more in the future. Additionally, I warned not to open contracts at this point; it's not suitable to do so.

Why is everyone waiting for the altcoin season?

In fact, this round of altcoin season started on November 3rd, and the first phase has officially ended. It’s not that the altcoin season hasn’t come; it’s just that you haven’t seized the opportunity.

1. Since November 3rd, the top 100 tokens have averaged a 70% increase, with many rising 3 to 5 times.

2. Since November 3rd, 67% of the top 100 tokens have outperformed BTC.

3. Since November 3rd, only 15 of the top 100 tokens have broken the historical high of 21 years, so the altcoin season may not have truly exploded yet.

4. Are altcoins currently in the waiting period for the second stage to start?

Funds flowing into BTC ➩ BTC's dominance increases ➩ Altcoins get drained ➩ Altcoins fall

5. When will the second phase of the altcoin season explode?

Funds flowing out of BTC ➩ BTC's dominance declines ➩ Altcoins absorb liquidity ➩ Soar

Altcoins:

Maybe starting today is a good time to bottom fish those impressive altcoins. Why do I say this?

Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall! Bitcoin falls, altcoins continue to fall! This is the true reflection of the market in recent days:

However, everyone shouldn't be too anxious. As long as Bitcoin doesn't fall back to 30,000 points, this round of the market will definitely not end. Right now is just not the time for altcoins to explode, so I think those holding altcoins should be patient. As long as the altcoins you hold are listed on major exchanges, the project teams are still active, and their direction aligns with market demand, then there’s no problem. Even in a bull market, good altcoins can outperform Bitcoin.

But at this time, do not casually chase hot spots and switch positions, especially new coins on Binance or other CEXs; it's easy to fall into a pit.

Currently, the market is filled with risk-averse sentiment. And this month, next week is Christmas, followed by New Year's Day. During this period, liquidity is very low, the US stock market is closed, and it is completely influenced by retail investor sentiment.

Powell's negative attitude is a challenge for Trump's policy promotion, but it may not be a decisive factor. Bitcoin can be realized as a strategic reserve plan through legislation in Congress. Trust in the power of trends; trends are irreversible.

The upward trend is still ongoing, because as long as nothing unexpected happens in Q1 of next year, the new president will take office, the new SEC chair will be in place, speculation will continue, and the trend will definitely persist.

Every major drop in a bull market is a good opportunity to enter:

Just like today, we are in a bull market cycle. However, this year’s market has a characteristic: it's fast, precise, and fierce. The rally is particularly quick, and the sell-off is also fast. Due to a lack of innovation or new stories to drive it, the market is difficult to sustain, and everyone needs to adapt to this rhythm.

The altcoin season can't be rigid; it's better to respect the actual situation. When opportunities arise, the market will signal before it rises. Just wait patiently.