Macroeconomic:

1. In 2024, Asia will account for 32% of global cryptocurrency developers, with new developers favoring SOLANA over Ethereum—focus on opportunities in the SOL ecosystem layout.

2. Individual token opportunities—ONDO: The Trump family's crypto project WLFI purchased $250,000 worth of ONDO tokens through Cow Protocol.

3. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 96%, with a high level of market consensus, but predictions for the 2025 rate cut path must be considered—capitalize on the short-term bullish situation, and consider reducing positions on highs.

4. This week is a super data week: a flurry of U.S. economic data is expected, including PMI, retail sales month-on-month, PCE price index, GDP final value, and other significant data; additionally, the focus this week will be on the interest rate decision and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech early Thursday morning, as the Bank of Japan will also announce its interest rate decision, which may become a disruptor this week—this week's risk events and data accumulation, be aware of the risk of sharp fluctuations.

5. This week will see a large-scale token unlocking, be cautious of the unlocking risks of related tokens.

Technical:

BTC

1. On the daily chart, pay attention to the resistance near the upper channel at around 11W, showing a general upward trend with decreasing volume, indicating a certain divergence between volume and price—RSI top divergence + KD severely overbought, indicating a need for technical correction.

2. BTC futures prices gapped up sharply, and caution is needed regarding the type of exhaustion gap at high levels.

3. In the 4H trend, pay attention to the historical trend patterns:

(1) 2023.12—2024.1 + 2024.3.20—2024.4.15

(2) 2021.3—2021.4.15 + 2021.10.30—2021.11.15

Under the premise of significant phase price increases, price convergence of moving averages at high levels is usually accompanied by high-level consolidation—MA200 can be a key reference.

Trading Strategy

Short positions: Gradually short around 107000—110000, average price 108500, stop loss 111000, take profit 105000—101000—98000 (weekly swing + limit orders).

Be cautious of risks and position control, for reference only.