The reliability of meme tokens can be judged by some of the larger retail wallets. If there are many wallets holding assets over 1,000 dollars, it usually indicates that a stable community is backing the token, and these holders are likely to hold long-term.
Different meme tokens have vastly different distributions of holders. Some tokens have their assets concentrated in the hands of a few individuals, while others are spread across multiple wallets, each holding a relatively small amount of assets.
Looking at the number of retail wallets holding over 1,000 dollars can provide us with a good reference regarding the popularity of the token.
Among all meme tokens, Pepe (PEPE) is the most popular, especially among mid-sized retail wallets. Besides the influence of meme culture online, Pepe also has a relatively long history.
Murad Mahmudov categorizes tokens into trading and holding types, considering Pepe (PEPE) as the leader, followed by DogWifHat (WIF) and SPX6900 (SPX).
In 2024, the influence and visibility of meme tokens are rapidly rising, and analysts are working hard to identify which tokens have more potential and are more reliable. Since its launch, PEPE's distribution has become increasingly broad, even surpassing those outspoken communities with a long-term holding culture.
PEPE aims to maintain a higher price range.
However, in recent days, PEPE has shown signs of losing some holders. Usually, PEPE attracts dozens of new holders every day, but now there is a downward trend. One possible reason is that some small wallets are interconnected, creating a false impression of a sell-off, which has triggered market panic.
Meanwhile, a well-known whale wallet has withdrawn more PEPE from Binance and stored it alongside APU tokens. Although some people believe PEPE's distribution is very broad, signs of wallet concentration can still be seen. The recent whale buyer belongs to a cluster holding 2.62% of the PEPE supply.
Other whales have also shown interest in holding, such as the address ranked 32nd, which is not connected to any cluster or smart contract, indicating a willingness to hold independently.
Currently, Wintermute has reduced its holdings of PEPE tokens to 242 billion, worth about 6.8 million dollars. As one of the most active meme market makers, Wintermute's asset selections differ from most meme token influencers, focusing mainly on POPCAT, CAT, and BONK, and recently adding CHILLGUY, MOODENG, PONKE, and GOAT.
Recently, PEPE's trading price approached its historical peak of 0.000027 dollars, but then fell to 0.000023 dollars. This asset's recent market cap surpassed 10 billion dollars, making it the third largest meme token by market cap.
Despite the surge in the number of meme tokens, currently only 10 tokens have a market capitalization exceeding 1 billion dollars, while tokens with a market cap of around 500 million dollars are in a 'gray area', where they may succeed or fail.
Currently, the top meme tokens selected by Murad Mahmudov are still within the market cap range of around 500 million dollars, waiting for more listings in the market to break through. He also warned that there is a risk of rotation among meme tokens, but if the right 'cult' tokens are selected, holders can still achieve better performance.
Meme tokens are losing their narrative foundation.
However, as investor and social media attention shifts towards DeFi, the market share of meme tokens is declining. Star tokens like Moodeng (MOODENG) have begun to drop after a wave of high-profile listings, while also exposing that some of these tokens' returns come from associated wallets and market manipulation.
One reason for this is that more and more attention is shifting towards emerging meme tokens, especially those related to AI agents.
The market cap of AI meme tokens has expanded to 4.3 billion dollars, although their share in the overall meme market remains small. Recently, Messari also pointed out that GOAT could become one of the meme tokens for 2024, while another AI-related token, FARTCOIN, is still trading at 0.77 dollars, close to its valuation peak.
Overall, the market cap of the meme token market has fallen below 120 billion dollars. Most tokens are performing relatively steadily, in a sideways consolidation state. However, tokens like SPX, GIGA, and AI16Z are performing outstandingly, especially driven by the momentum of AI meme tokens, attracting market enthusiasm.