1. BTC Technical Analysis:

#BTC☀ retraced after setting a new high near $107,777, consistent with the forecast that 'the overall trend will rise initially and then correct.' Overnight, SEC filings disclosed that MicroStrategy continued to accumulate Bitcoin, purchasing 15,350 BTC last week at an average of $100,386, further propelling Bitcoin prices to continue setting historical highs alongside the NASDAQ.

The daily line opened with a medium bullish close with a small upper shadow, and it's expected to first correct and then rebound during the day. The overall strategy remains unchanged: aside from recent highs, there are no historical resistance levels to refer to above. Support levels can be referenced at the weekend's correction lows of $100,610 and around $99,212. As long as these levels are not broken, the market is likely to continue its bullish trend. The trend indicator on the 4-hour level has shown bullish signals since December 12, suggesting a focus on maintaining a buy-on-dip strategy.

2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on the weekly rise and fall of popular coins and sector capital flow.

Data shows that in the past week, the cryptocurrency market saw significant net capital inflows concentrated in several key areas such as Avalanche ecosystem, Ethereum ecosystem, Layer 1, Binance Smart Chain, and Real World Assets (RWA). Additionally, many cryptocurrencies experienced substantial rotational rises over the past week. The top 200 by market capitalization include FARTCOIN, #VIRTUAL , #AAVE , ONDO, ENA, and ENS among others.

3. Spot ETF capital inflow and outflow situation.

Data shows that #比特币现货ETF exhibited a strong capital inflow trend over the past week, with a weekly net inflow of $2.17 billion, and this trend has been maintained for five consecutive trading days. This indicates that investor interest and confidence in Bitcoin spot ETFs are gradually increasing. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT ETF topped the list with a net inflow of $1.51 billion, with a historical total net inflow of $35.88 billion, further consolidating its leading position in this field. Fidelity's FBTC ETF also performed well, with a weekly net inflow of $598 million and a historical total net inflow of $12.31 billion. These data indicate that Bitcoin spot ETFs under large financial institutions are attracting increasing attention from investors.

However, in stark contrast to the strong performance of Bitcoin spot ETFs, Grayscale's GBTC ETF experienced a net outflow of $221 million last week, bringing its historical cumulative net outflow to $21.05 billion. This may indicate that some investors' views on Grayscale's GBTC are changing, or they are seeking other more attractive investment opportunities.

Meanwhile, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $114.969 billion, accounting for 5.71% of Bitcoin's total market value, with historical cumulative net inflows also reaching $35.602 billion. Furthermore, the total assets managed by ETFs listed in the U.S. have surpassed the $10 trillion mark for the first time, with $40 billion already allocated to the cryptocurrency sector. This trend suggests that cryptocurrencies, as an emerging investment field, are gradually gaining recognition and acceptance from mainstream financial institutions and investors.

4. The in-field #BTC余额 has set a new historical low.

Data shows that in the past 7 days, centralized exchanges (CEX) had a cumulative net outflow of 37,708.42 BTC, indicating a market trend towards holding Bitcoin. Among them, Binance and two other exchanges had the highest outflow. This phenomenon may reflect large investors' confidence in the long-term holding of Bitcoin, as well as potential changes in market trends.

We believe that this large-scale BTC outflow may be related to several factors. As the price increases, the rising outflow may indicate that investors have confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value, choosing to transfer assets to personal wallets, reducing holdings on exchanges to lower potential security risks and improve capital control. Additionally, as the cryptocurrency market matures, more investors may prefer to hold long-term rather than engage in short-term trading, which may also contribute to the increase in outflow. These data provide important perspectives on market sentiment and investor behavior, offering reference value for understanding the dynamics of the Bitcoin market.

5. Interpretation of BTC contract funding rates and long-short ratios.

According to contract data, the funding rate for BTC contracts remains at a positive level of around 0.01%. In fact, a funding rate of around 0.01% compared to history is a normal and healthy level. For example, a while ago, when the market entered a FOMO state due to a significant price rise, it could imbalance to 0.03-0.05 or even above 0.1%. Recently, as BTC set new historical highs again, the funding rate is actually in a relatively healthy state, having maintained around 0.01% since December 10, and there was no extreme deviation even with yesterday's significant price rise.

We often see news or individuals stating that the annualized yield from funding rate arbitrage is 10.95%, which is actually calculated based on 0.01%, averaging 0.03% daily, equating to an annualized figure of 0.1095 or 10.95%.

Regarding the long-short ratio, taking last Friday as an example, the long-short ratio on Binance was roughly in the range of 0.88-0.94 that day, with slightly more shorts in terms of the number of traders, meaning that the total number of long traders was slightly less than that of short traders. This is a relatively normal level during a phase of rising prices, as short-term speculators may take profits and reduce long positions while short-term shorts enter the market, resulting in this slightly below 1 data level. However, on that day, the long-short ratio among large holders maintained between 1.73-1.85, indicating that among the main holdings, longs had a relative advantage of 63-65%. The actual market later also saw a volatile rise and reached a historical high on this week’s Monday.

The funding rate we often see is around 0.01%, which actually indicates a relatively high proportion of long positions. However, some friends like to completely oppose the long-short ratio and funding rate data. In fact, when the long-short ratio is often seen below 1, it means there are relatively more short positions, but in terms of holdings, long positions still dominate, because the design logic of the funding rate is that a bullish market will result in a positive value. It is also based on the scale of long and short positions for mutual payments. When the proportion of long positions is high, it means more payments to the shorts.

The fact that the long-short ratio shows slightly more shorts does not carry as much significance as the data on holdings, which can affect the market itself. Due to matching and liquidity mechanism issues, during a phase of rising prices, a slightly below 1 long-short ratio is a relatively normal level. This is because short-term speculators may take profits and reduce long positions while short-term shorts enter, resulting in this slightly below 1 data level. The important data should still focus on the overall long-short ratio of positions and the long-short ratio among large holders.

When expressing the long-short ratio, it should also include the number of participants in the long-short ratio or the holdings/active buy-sell volume ratio (overall long-short position ratio)/the long-short ratio of large holders to avoid ambiguity, as the values of both often show opposite situations. However, understanding the different types of long-short ratios can clarify their respective meanings.