Recently launched MOVE and ME have shown the enthusiasm of the crowd and the ferocity of new coins in a bull market.
So, is the new coin strategy under the background of a bull market no longer the same, and is it unnecessary to sell early at the opening as before? Odaily will attempt to answer this question by reviewing the recent new coins launched on several exchanges in this article.
Basic situation description
This article selected new coins launched on Binance, OKX, Bybit, and across the entire network, limited to the last two months.
The entire network launch includes MOVE and ME;
Binance includes SCR, USUAL (pre-market);
OKX includes MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL, and X (in fact, many are launched simultaneously but do not include Binance, etc.);
Bybit has chosen MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.
In terms of time, the closing prices of the above tokens for 5 minutes, 1 hour, 24 hours, and 7 days were recorded, along with the current price (as of December 16th, 15:00 Beijing time).
Then compare the rise and fall of each token, such as the 1-hour closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price, to determine whether it is 'the opening being the high point'.
Does the opening still exist as a high point?
The rise and fall data for each token is shown in the figure below. Among them, the average decline of the 1-hour closing price compared to the 5-minute closing price is 14%, and the average decline of the 24-hour closing price is 7%.
It can be seen that in the short term, the opening 5 minutes is still the high point. If you can acquire tokens within that time frame, it is still recommended to sell.
There are a total of eight tokens that have been online for 7 days, and these tokens have declined by 8.7% in closing price over 7 days relative to the 5-minute closing price, indicating that the mid-term situation remains unchanged, and the opening is still the high point.
Will the situation change if the time frame is extended?
The current price has risen by an average of 25% relative to the closing price of 11 tokens over the past 5 minutes, but excluding OL, it has turned into an average decline of 21%, with the decline further expanding.
The opening is still peak
In summary, for most tokens, the opening is still likely to be the highest point. The bull market may bring a higher opening price rather than long-term gains. Moreover, it is difficult to eliminate the excessively high prices caused by the overly enthusiastic sentiment at the opening within a month or two. According to statistical laws, it is still recommended to sell if you can acquire tokens within 5 minutes.
Estimated price of the new coin VANA on Binance
Based on the past 21 periods of Binance Launchpool data, we estimate the price of VANA to be 15.9 USDT, corresponding to an FDV of 1.911 billion USD, with an initial circulating market value of 479 million USD.
Its algorithm is: the average annualized return over the past 21 periods is 96%, assuming this period is also 96%; then based on the average amount of BNB invested in the past 21 periods and the BNB price of 726 USDT, we can determine that to achieve the same annualized return, the price of VANA needs to reach:
16973725 × 726 ÷ 4080000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96% = 15.93
The above is a theoretical model estimate and should not be considered as investment advice.