Crypto insights, dissecting the market 12-16
1. Focus on financial data and events:
(1) On December 18, probability of a 25 basis point rate cut 97.1% (up 1.1% from yesterday, likely to cut rates, continue to release liquidity)
(2) Geopolitical: Israel deploys long-range automated weapons for the first time in the West Bank, Palestinian Authority launches rare attack (today's gold price 2657U)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 153.72 (Japan announces interest rate on December 19)
(4) Bitcoin concept stock MicroStrategy (MSTR) added to Nasdaq 100 index (effective on the 21st)
(5) This Wednesday evening, US interest rate meeting, this Thursday Japan's interest rate decision
2. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 80 (extreme greed)
(2) ETF dynamics: last week total net inflow 2.17 billion U, net inflow for 11 consecutive days;
(3) Mining data analysis: 825.67 eh/s, transaction fee 6.52 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 58588-92662U
(4) Recent large options: December 20 maximum pain point 100000U, nominal amount 18.9
(5) Today's BTC position weighted funding rate: 0.0115% (funding rate normal range slight fluctuations)
(5) BTC market cap share 56.14% (up 0.35% from yesterday), negatively correlated, altcoins consolidating
(6) Today's volatility main logic review: BTC bleeding, altcoins consolidating
Recent potential positive factors
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market
2. Continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December
3. Japan maintains interest rates in December
4. Biden hands over presidential power on the 18th, the Trump era arrives
Recent potential negative factors
1. Next interest rate hike in Japan (January/March)
2. US halts interest rate cuts (January)
3. Risk of correction before Trump takes office on January 20
The above content is for information sharing only,
and does not constitute any investment advice!
Investment carries risks, proceed with caution!
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