The large pancake retraced a few days ago. Even if 104,000 will be a recent peak, there will definitely be a 'double top' to make retail investors run. Unknowingly, Bitcoin is approaching 104,000 again. Whether it's a double top or a breakout will depend on the next couple of days. If it can't break through, it will be quite awkward!

If it breaks through, then we can see 120,000 to 130,000. Technically, it's just going through another small cycle. The higher it goes, the greater the risk becomes, and in the later stages, one must tread carefully. However, in the long run, this can be ignored. Holding until March to May next year might yield unexpected gains.

It’s precisely because every adjustment during a bull market is followed by a surge that those who think they have successfully timed a wave will keep getting back in. After several cycles of this, speculators develop a conditioned reflex like Pavlov's dogs, remaining firmly bullish after each pullback, increasing their positions and their boldness.

Even with a primary downward trend and reasons for a leading decline, having already dropped 30% or even 50% from the top, those who frequently trade still harbor fantasies of a bull market, believing this time will be the same as before and will continue to set new highs.

In the last couple of days, there has clearly been no profit effect; only the large pancake is struggling alone. The support for the large pancake comes from the fact that U.S. stocks will experience spillover effects due to Microstrategy's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 on Monday, and ETFs are expected to continue inflowing. Moreover, next week the Federal Reserve is likely to complete the interest rate cut in December (the probability is close to 100%), so before a real pullback, a new high is still possible, but the height is not worth expecting.