Daily share
I have things to do today, and I will return home around 10 PM, so the article update is a bit late. Just a brief update; we will discuss in detail tomorrow, Friday.
The 1-hour rebound for Bitcoin has surged to 101888, which has effectively formed a V-shaped rebound. Therefore, there is some doubt about whether the 4-hour level pullback can successfully emerge. It is very likely to still be within the range of 1-hour central consolidation, after which it could continue to reach new highs.
In the recent market over the past few days, I first suggested reducing positions and paying attention to pullbacks on November 5, which has helped everyone avoid significant capital withdrawal. Especially for those holding long contracts, it prevented losses when Bitcoin spiked to 90500 and 94000.
At the same time, the VIP group in the community allowed everyone to enter in batches at low levels during the significant pullback of altcoins, so that everyone's hopes were not fully placed on a second pullback.
In reality, during the upward movement, we cannot always buy at the lowest point of the pullback, so dollar-cost averaging is key to avoid missing out.
BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, using this only as a reference.
1H:
1-hour level: since a 4-hour pullback cannot be established here, the current pullbacks can only be regarded as 1-hour pullbacks. 1-hour pullbacks have been continuous, for example, from 99500 to around 90080 on November 23 is a 1-hour pullback; from 98600 to 93700 on November 30, and from 104000 to 94000 in December. All these pullbacks are merely 1-hour pullbacks and have not formed an effective 4-hour pullback. Therefore, it is expected that the 4-hour downtrend may not necessarily materialize, and the overall focus is on the 1-hour central consolidation, viewing it in a fluctuating manner. After the consolidation is completed, it will continue to refresh the highs; 104000 is not a short-term endpoint.
Now that the strategy is clear, we are more confident in holding our spot or low-position contract positions. Whether short-term is a V-shaped rebound or a flag pattern, hold onto the spot for the last wave of flight before the end of the year.
If the current 1-hour level rebound starting from 94000 cannot effectively break through 102500, then short-term attention needs to be paid to the possibility of a 1-hour pullback. Don't worry about the pullback, just continue to increase your position.
Now is the time to be a bit more daring with bullish positions, welcoming the resurgence of altcoins. However, it's not advisable to keep increasing leverage for all-in bets, as any sudden drop could be quite painful.
15M:
15-minute level: currently running the third wave of 15-minute upward movement, which should still be able to go further up. If it cannot break 102500, then look for a 1-hour pullback, which can be deep or shallow, but normally it shouldn't break below 94000, then continue to push for new highs.
If Bitcoin makes a short-term rebound and breaks through 102500, then be aware that the market may continue to push towards the 104000 level.
ETH
Ethereum retraced to 3500 and then rebounded to around 4000. Let's see if it breaks 4087. If it doesn't, then there might be a short-term 1-hour pullback to around 3730. If it breaks through, pay attention to 4250.
Currently, to put it bluntly, we are still in a phase of washing out weak hands. There will be another wave of upward movement before the end of the year, so one can be a bit bolder with spot trading. After the market peaks for a while, one should be cautious of a significant drop.
Trend direction
Weekly level: direction is upward, currently in a new wave of weekly upward movement, with an overall target above 150,000.
Daily level: direction is upward, with expectations of reaching around 150,000.
4-hour level: direction is upward. The structure of the 4-hour pullback has not been established, and it is expected that the short-term may still be in a range-bound upward extension.
1-hour level: direction is upward. The current strength of the 1-hour level rebound is being evaluated; if it does not break through 102500, it will likely pull back to around 98000 or 97000, and then continue to reach new highs.
15-minute level: direction is upward, pay attention to the strength of the upward movement at the 15-minute level.